ESAFSFB
ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ESAFSFB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) trades at ₹40,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.
On the numbers, ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing premium at 34.6× earnings, ROE of -8.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ESAFSFB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How ESAFSFB ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- ESAFSFB's market cap of 2,078 Cr ranks in the 51st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ESAFSFB's book value of ₹35 ranks in the 26th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ESAFSFB's promoter holding of 63.2% ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ESAFSFB's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -4.0% ranks in the 25th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ESAFSFB's 3-year revenue growth of 7.0% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for ESAFSFB, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is ESAFSFB overvalued? ESAFSFB P/E vs peers
ESAFSFB trades at 34.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
ESAFSFB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.7y of ESAFSFB history (-20%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESAFSFB 2027 | ₹25 | ₹41 | ₹67 | +2% |
| ESAFSFB 2028 | ₹21 | ₹42 | ₹84 | +4% |
| ESAFSFB 2029 | ₹18 | ₹42 | ₹101 | +5% |
| ESAFSFB 2030 | ₹16 | ₹43 | ₹119 | +7% |
| ESAFSFB 2031 | ₹14 | ₹44 | ₹136 | +9% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ESAFSFB goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ESAFSFB
- Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹101.
The bear case & risks
- ESAFSFB's P/E of 34.6x is lower than 40% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- ESAFSFB's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹18.
ESAFSFB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.7 years ESAFSFB compounded at -20%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹25-₹67, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ESAFSFB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ESAFSFB price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ESAFSFB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ESAFSFB price target & forecast page.
ESAFSFB Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ESAFSFB scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.
ESAFSFB MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ESAFSFB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.52% | 2.8× |
| Zerodha | 35.67% | 2.8× |
| Groww | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Dhan | 50.00% | 2.0× |
| Kotak Neo | 100.00% | 1.0× |
| Paytm Money | 35.60% | 2.8× |
| PocketfulCHEAPEST | 34.13% | 2.9× |
| Anand Rathi | 35.67% | 2.8× |
| Bajaj Broking | 40.00% | 2.5× |
| Share India | 35.60% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the ESAFSFB MTF page.
About ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,078 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the ESAFSFB Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ESAFSFB analysis, FAQs
Is ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) a good buy?
On the numbers, ESAF Small Finance Bank Limited (ESAFSFB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing premium at 34.6× earnings, ROE of -8.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ESAFSFB overvalued or undervalued?
ESAFSFB trades at 34.6× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the ESAFSFB share price target for 2031?
ESAFSFB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹44, with an 80% range of ₹14-₹136 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ESAFSFB doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ESAFSFB reaching ₹81 (2×) within 5 years is 24%.
What is the bull case for ESAFSFB?
Low price-to-book of 1.16×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in ESAFSFB?
ESAFSFB's P/E of 34.6x is lower than 40% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. ESAFSFB's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.