Case study

ESTER

Ester Industries Limited

Tread carefully1y model -1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

33Score

Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ESTER a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) trades at ₹87,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 80.2× earnings, ROE of -3.5%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ESTER fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹911 Cr
Current price
₹87
P/E ratio
80.2×
P/B ratio
1.09×
Book value
₹80
Dividend yield
0.69%
ROCE
2.8%
ROE
-3.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How ESTER ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is ESTER overvalued? ESTER P/E vs peers

ESTER trades at 80.2× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

ESTER share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of ESTER history (6%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ESTER 2027₹46₹86₹161-1%
ESTER 2028₹35₹85₹207-3%
ESTER 2029₹28₹84₹254-4%
ESTER 2030₹23₹83₹290-6%
ESTER 2031₹20₹81₹328-7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ESTER goes up, or doubles?

49%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
47%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹175 within 5 years

The bull case for ESTER

  • Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹254.

The bear case & risks

  • ESTER's P/E of 80.2x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹28.

ESTER volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years ESTER compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹46-₹161, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ESTER price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹46-₹161
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.2%
80% range₹28-₹254
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.9%
80% range₹20-₹328
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)25%

ESTER price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ESTER simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ESTER hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ESTER price target & forecast page.

ESTER Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. ESTER scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

ESTER MTF margin & leverage across 4 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ESTER with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 4 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Dhan50.00%2.0×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST35.94%2.8×
Share India36.13%2.8×

Compare every broker on the ESTER MTF page.

About Ester Industries Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹911 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the ESTER Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ester Industries Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ESTER analysis, FAQs

Is Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ester Industries Limited (ESTER) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing expensive at 80.2× earnings, ROE of -3.5%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ESTER overvalued or undervalued?

ESTER trades at 80.2× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the ESTER share price target for 2031?

ESTER's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹81, with an 80% range of ₹20-₹328 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ESTER doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ESTER reaching ₹175 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for ESTER?

Low price-to-book of 1.09×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in ESTER?

ESTER's P/E of 80.2x is lower than 14% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on ESTER