FACT
Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is FACT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) trades at ₹839,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100.
On the numbers, Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing expensive at 3667.0× earnings, ROE of 1.6%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
FACT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How FACT ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- FACT's market cap of 54,315 Cr ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's book value of ₹21 ranks in the 19th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's promoter holding of 90.0% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -63.0% ranks in the bottom 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's 3-year revenue growth of -3.0% ranks in the 18th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.79x is lower than 3% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
Is FACT overvalued? FACT P/E vs peers
FACT trades at 3667.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
FACT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of FACT history (36%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FACT 2027 | ₹501 | ₹873 | ₹1,523 | +4% |
| FACT 2028 | ₹413 | ₹909 | ₹1,998 | +8% |
| FACT 2029 | ₹358 | ₹946 | ₹2,498 | +13% |
| FACT 2030 | ₹324 | ₹984 | ₹2,983 | +17% |
| FACT 2031 | ₹288 | ₹1,024 | ₹3,641 | +22% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability FACT goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for FACT
- Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,498.
The bear case & risks
- FACT's P/E of 3667.0x is lower than 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- A steep 39.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- FACT's return on equity of 1.6% ranks in the 18th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- FACT's Piotroski F-Score of 3/8 ranks in the 15th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹358.
FACT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years FACT compounded at 36%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹501-₹1,523, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
FACT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
FACT price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds FACT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the FACT price target & forecast page.
FACT Piotroski F-Score: 3/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. FACT scores 3/8, weak on the financial-strength checks.
FACT MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FACT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.80% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.75% | 2.8× |
| Groww | 35.97% | 2.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 35.75% | 2.8× |
| Kotak Neo | 35.84% | 2.8× |
| Paytm Money | 36.18% | 2.8× |
| Pocketful | 36.49% | 2.7× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 35.75% | 2.8× |
| Bajaj Broking | 41.00% | 2.4× |
| Share India | 35.95% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the FACT MTF page.
About Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹54,315 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the FACT Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
FACT analysis, FAQs
Is Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) a good buy?
On the numbers, Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited (FACT) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 25/100, weighing expensive at 3667.0× earnings, ROE of 1.6%, a 54% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is FACT overvalued or undervalued?
FACT trades at 3667.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the FACT share price target for 2031?
FACT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,024, with an 80% range of ₹288-₹3,641 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability FACT doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of FACT reaching ₹1,679 (2×) within 5 years is 31%.
What is the bull case for FACT?
Fertilizers And Chemicals Travancore Limited is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in FACT?
FACT's P/E of 3667.0x is lower than 1% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 39.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. FACT's return on equity of 1.6% ranks in the 18th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.