FCL
FCL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
FCL (FCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is FCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
FCL (FCL) trades at ₹45,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100.
On the numbers, FCL (FCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing expensive at 48.6× earnings, ROE of 13.5%, a 44% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
FCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is FCL overvalued? FCL P/E vs its sector
FCL's P/E of 48.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.18% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
FCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FCL history (5%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCL 2027 | ₹22 | ₹41 | ₹76 | -6% |
| FCL 2028 | ₹16 | ₹38 | ₹92 | -13% |
| FCL 2029 | ₹12 | ₹35 | ₹104 | -18% |
| FCL 2030 | ₹9 | ₹33 | ₹116 | -24% |
| FCL 2031 | ₹7 | ₹31 | ₹124 | -29% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability FCL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for FCL
- A healthy 13.5% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹104.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 48.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 44% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹12.
FCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years FCL compounded at 5%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹22–₹76, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
FCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
FCL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds FCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the FCL price target & forecast page.
FCL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FCL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
FCL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 40.9% | 2.4× |
Compare every broker on the FCL MTF page.
FCL vs peers,sector comparison
About FCL: sector, index & market-cap context
FCL (FCL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,289 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the FCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of FCL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
FCL analysis, FAQs
Is FCL (FCL) a good buy?
On the numbers, FCL (FCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing expensive at 48.6× earnings, ROE of 13.5%, a 44% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is FCL overvalued or undervalued?
FCL trades at 48.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the FCL share price target for 2031?
FCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹31, with an 80% range of ₹7–₹124 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability FCL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of FCL reaching ₹87 (2×) within 5 years is 17%.
What is the bull case for FCL?
A healthy 13.5% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.3%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in FCL?
A rich 48.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 44% chance of finishing above today's price. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.