Case study

FDC

FDC Limited

Mixed signals1y model -11.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

FDC Limited (FDC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FDC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

FDC Limited (FDC) trades at ₹404,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, FDC Limited (FDC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.1× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FDC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,569 Cr
Current price
₹404
P/E ratio
22.1×
P/B ratio
2.64×
Book value
₹153
Dividend yield
1.24%
ROCE
16.7%
ROE
12.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is FDC overvalued? FDC P/E vs its sector

FDC's P/E of 22.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.24% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

FDC P/E
22.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
FDC div yield
1.24%
Peer median yield
1.65%

FDC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FDC history (-9%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FDC 2027₹230₹345₹504-12%
FDC 2028₹174₹299₹517-23%
FDC 2029₹132₹263₹516-32%
FDC 2030₹105₹230₹501-41%
FDC 2031₹83₹201₹479-48%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FDC goes up, or doubles?

34%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
17%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹779 within 5 years

The bull case for FDC

  • A 22.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 12.5% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹516.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹132.

FDC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years FDC compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹230₹504, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FDC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
11.5%
80% range₹230–₹504
P(price ↑)34%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
32.4%
80% range₹132–₹516
P(price ↑)22%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
48.5%
80% range₹83–₹479
P(price ↑)17%
P(price 2×)2%

FDC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FDC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FDC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FDC price target & forecast page.

FDC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FDC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

FDC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FDC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.8%3.4×
DhanCHEAPEST29.8%3.4×

Compare every broker on the FDC MTF page.

FDC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
FDC (this stock)22.1×1.24%₹6,569 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About FDC Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

FDC Limited (FDC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,569 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the FDC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of FDC Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FDC analysis, FAQs

Is FDC Limited (FDC) a good buy?

On the numbers, FDC Limited (FDC) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 22.1× earnings, ROE of 12.5%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FDC overvalued or undervalued?

FDC trades at 22.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the FDC share price target for 2031?

FDC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹201, with an 80% range of ₹83₹479 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FDC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FDC reaching ₹779 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for FDC?

A 22.1× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 12.5% return on equity.

What are the risks in FDC?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on FDC