Case study

FINOPB

Fino Payments Bank Limited

Tread carefully1y model -4.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

44Score

Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FINOPB a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) trades at ₹155,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100.

On the numbers, Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.1× earnings, ROE of 7.4%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FINOPB fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,290 Cr
Current price
₹155
P/E ratio
23.1×
P/B ratio
1.67×
Book value
₹93
ROCE
4.5%
ROE
7.4%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How FINOPB ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for FINOPB, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is FINOPB overvalued? FINOPB P/E vs peers

FINOPB trades at 23.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

FINOPB share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 4.7y of FINOPB history (-27%/yr drift, 55%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FINOPB 2027₹73₹148₹302-4%
FINOPB 2028₹52₹142₹387-8%
FINOPB 2029₹40₹136₹465-12%
FINOPB 2030₹30₹130₹559-16%
FINOPB 2031₹24₹124₹638-20%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FINOPB goes up, or doubles?

47%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
43%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
23%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹310 within 5 years

The bull case for FINOPB

  • FINOPB's P/E of 23.1x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹465.

The bear case & risks

  • FINOPB's return on equity of 7.4% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹40.

FINOPB volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 4.7 years FINOPB compounded at -27%/year with annualized volatility of 55%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹73-₹302, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FINOPB price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 4.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹73-₹302
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
12.4%
80% range₹40-₹465
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
19.8%
80% range₹24-₹638
P(price ↑)43%
P(price 2×)23%

FINOPB price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FINOPB simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FINOPB hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FINOPB price target & forecast page.

FINOPB Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. FINOPB scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

FINOPB MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FINOPB with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha43.12%2.3×
Groww60.00%1.7×
Dhan43.12%2.3×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST43.10%2.3×
Paytm Money53.22%1.9×
Pocketful43.62%2.3×
Anand Rathi43.12%2.3×
Bajaj Broking50.00%2.0×
Share India43.36%2.3×

Compare every broker on the FINOPB MTF page.

About Fino Payments Bank Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,290 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the FINOPB Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Fino Payments Bank Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FINOPB analysis, FAQs

Is Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) a good buy?

On the numbers, Fino Payments Bank Limited (FINOPB) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 44/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.1× earnings, ROE of 7.4%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FINOPB overvalued or undervalued?

FINOPB trades at 23.1× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the FINOPB share price target for 2031?

FINOPB's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹124, with an 80% range of ₹24-₹638 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FINOPB doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FINOPB reaching ₹310 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.

What is the bull case for FINOPB?

FINOPB's P/E of 23.1x is lower than 57% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in FINOPB?

FINOPB's return on equity of 7.4% ranks in the 38th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (55%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on FINOPB