Case study

FMGOETZE

Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind

Worth a closer look1y model -7.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FMGOETZE a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) trades at ₹474,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.

On the numbers, Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.5× earnings, ROE of 13.5%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FMGOETZE fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,638 Cr
Current price
₹474
P/E ratio
14.5×
P/B ratio
1.84×
Book value
₹258
ROCE
18.5%
ROE
13.5%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is FMGOETZE overvalued? FMGOETZE P/E vs its sector

FMGOETZE's P/E of 14.5× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers.

FMGOETZE P/E
14.5×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
Peer median yield
1.66%

FMGOETZE share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FMGOETZE history (0%/yr drift, 38%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FMGOETZE 2027₹258₹421₹698-7%
FMGOETZE 2028₹196₹388₹786-15%
FMGOETZE 2029₹158₹364₹857-20%
FMGOETZE 2030₹130₹339₹908-25%
FMGOETZE 2031₹106₹315₹955-31%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FMGOETZE goes up, or doubles?

42%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
33%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
11%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹908 within 5 years

The bull case for FMGOETZE

  • Trades at just 14.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • A healthy 13.5% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (18.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹857.

The bear case & risks

  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹158.

FMGOETZE volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years FMGOETZE compounded at 0%/year with annualized volatility of 38%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹258₹698, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FMGOETZE price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹258–₹698
P(price ↑)42%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
19.8%
80% range₹158–₹857
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)8%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
30.6%
80% range₹106–₹955
P(price ↑)33%
P(price 2×)11%

FMGOETZE price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FMGOETZE simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FMGOETZE hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FMGOETZE price target & forecast page.

FMGOETZE Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FMGOETZE scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

FMGOETZE MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FMGOETZE with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.8%3.0×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the FMGOETZE MTF page.

FMGOETZE vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
FMGOETZE (this stock)14.5×₹2,638 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind: sector, index & market-cap context

Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,638 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the FMGOETZE Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FMGOETZE analysis, FAQs

Is Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) a good buy?

On the numbers, Federal-Mogul Goetze (Ind (FMGOETZE) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 14.5× earnings, ROE of 13.5%, a 42% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FMGOETZE overvalued or undervalued?

FMGOETZE trades at 14.5× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the FMGOETZE share price target for 2031?

FMGOETZE's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹315, with an 80% range of ₹106₹955 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FMGOETZE doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FMGOETZE reaching ₹908 (2×) within 5 years is 11%.

What is the bull case for FMGOETZE?

Trades at just 14.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 13.5% return on equity. Strong ROCE (18.5%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in FMGOETZE?

A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 42% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on FMGOETZE