Case study

FOSECOIND

Foseco India

Tread carefully1y model +2.6%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Foseco India (FOSECOIND) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FOSECOIND a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Foseco India (FOSECOIND) trades at ₹5,198,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, Foseco India (FOSECOIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 40.1× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FOSECOIND fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,908 Cr
Current price
₹5,198
P/E ratio
40.1×
P/B ratio
3.78×
Book value
₹1,375
Dividend yield
0.48%
ROCE
17.4%
ROE
12.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is FOSECOIND overvalued? FOSECOIND P/E vs its sector

FOSECOIND's P/E of 40.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.48% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

FOSECOIND P/E
40.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
FOSECOIND div yield
0.48%
Peer median yield
1.65%

FOSECOIND share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FOSECOIND history (11%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FOSECOIND 2027₹3,171₹5,393₹9,141+3%
FOSECOIND 2028₹2,610₹5,529₹11,803+5%
FOSECOIND 2029₹2,268₹5,696₹14,244+8%
FOSECOIND 2030₹2,002₹5,791₹16,901+10%
FOSECOIND 2031₹1,804₹5,948₹19,711+13%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FOSECOIND goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
55%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
27%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹10,517 within 5 years

The bull case for FOSECOIND

  • A healthy 12.6% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹14,244.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 40.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,268.

FOSECOIND volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years FOSECOIND compounded at 11%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,171₹9,141, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FOSECOIND price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
2.6%
80% range₹3,171–₹9,141
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
8.3%
80% range₹2,268–₹14,244
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
13.1%
80% range₹1,804–₹19,711
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)27%

FOSECOIND price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FOSECOIND simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FOSECOIND hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FOSECOIND price target & forecast page.

FOSECOIND Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FOSECOIND scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

FOSECOIND MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FOSECOIND with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST35.2%2.8×
Zerodha50.0%2.0×
DhanCHEAPEST35.2%2.8×

Compare every broker on the FOSECOIND MTF page.

FOSECOIND vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
FOSECOIND (this stock)40.1×0.48%₹3,908 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Foseco India: sector, index & market-cap context

Foseco India (FOSECOIND) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,908 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the FOSECOIND Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Foseco India's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FOSECOIND analysis, FAQs

Is Foseco India (FOSECOIND) a good buy?

On the numbers, Foseco India (FOSECOIND) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 40.1× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FOSECOIND overvalued or undervalued?

FOSECOIND trades at 40.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the FOSECOIND share price target for 2031?

FOSECOIND's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,948, with an 80% range of ₹1,804₹19,711 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FOSECOIND doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FOSECOIND reaching ₹10,517 (2×) within 5 years is 27%.

What is the bull case for FOSECOIND?

A healthy 12.6% return on equity.

What are the risks in FOSECOIND?

A rich 40.1× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.

More on FOSECOIND