FSL
Firstsource
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Firstsource (FSL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is FSL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Firstsource (FSL) trades at ₹244,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100.
On the numbers, Firstsource (FSL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 17.7%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
FSL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is FSL overvalued? FSL P/E vs its sector
FSL's P/E of 23.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.25% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
FSL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of FSL history (7%/yr drift, 46%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSL 2027 | ₹131 | ₹237 | ₹421 | -3% |
| FSL 2028 | ₹98 | ₹227 | ₹527 | -7% |
| FSL 2029 | ₹78 | ₹220 | ₹606 | -10% |
| FSL 2030 | ₹65 | ₹210 | ₹692 | -14% |
| FSL 2031 | ₹54 | ₹204 | ₹773 | -16% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability FSL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for FSL
- A 23.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
- A healthy 17.7% return on equity.
- Pays a 2.3% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹606.
The bear case & risks
- High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹78.
FSL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years FSL compounded at 7%/year with annualized volatility of 46%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹131–₹421, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
FSL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
FSL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds FSL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the FSL price target & forecast page.
FSL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. FSL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
FSL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FSL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 36.5% | 2.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 36.5% | 2.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 36.5% | 2.7× |
Compare every broker on the FSL MTF page.
FSL vs peers,sector comparison
About Firstsource: sector, index & market-cap context
Firstsource (FSL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹17,276 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the FSL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Firstsource's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
FSL analysis, FAQs
Is Firstsource (FSL) a good buy?
On the numbers, Firstsource (FSL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.0× earnings, ROE of 17.7%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is FSL overvalued or undervalued?
FSL trades at 23.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the FSL share price target for 2031?
FSL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹204, with an 80% range of ₹54–₹773 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability FSL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of FSL reaching ₹489 (2×) within 5 years is 19%.
What is the bull case for FSL?
A 23.0× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 17.7% return on equity. Pays a 2.3% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in FSL?
High historical volatility (46%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.