Case study

FSL

Firstsource Solutions Limited

Mixed signals1y model +0.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

52Score

Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is FSL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) trades at ₹280,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.

On the numbers, Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

FSL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹19,786 Cr
Current price
₹280
P/E ratio
24.8×
P/B ratio
4.52×
Book value
₹62
Dividend yield
1.97%
ROCE
16.8%
ROE
17.6%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How FSL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is FSL overvalued? FSL P/E vs peers

FSL trades at 24.8× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

FSL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of FSL history (21%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
FSL 2027₹150₹281₹525+0%
FSL 2028₹117₹281₹676+0%
FSL 2029₹98₹282₹809+1%
FSL 2030₹85₹283₹940+1%
FSL 2031₹72₹283₹1,110+1%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability FSL goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
50%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹560 within 5 years

The bull case for FSL

  • FSL's P/E of 24.8x is lower than 54% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • FSL's return on equity of 17.6% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹809.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹98.

FSL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years FSL compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹150-₹525, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

FSL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.2%
80% range₹150-₹525
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
0.7%
80% range₹98-₹809
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.2%
80% range₹72-₹1,110
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)26%

FSL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
FSL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds FSL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the FSL price target & forecast page.

FSL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. FSL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

FSL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy FSL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox38.07%2.6×
Zerodha38.16%2.6×
Groww38.07%2.6×
Dhan38.16%2.6×
Kotak Neo38.17%2.6×
Paytm Money48.07%2.1×
PocketfulCHEAPEST36.37%2.7×
Anand Rathi38.16%2.6×
Bajaj Broking39.00%2.6×
Share India36.94%2.7×

Compare every broker on the FSL MTF page.

About Firstsource Solutions Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹19,786 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the FSL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Firstsource Solutions Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

FSL analysis, FAQs

Is Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Firstsource Solutions Limited (FSL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing fairly valued at 24.8× earnings, ROE of 17.6%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is FSL overvalued or undervalued?

FSL trades at 24.8× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the FSL share price target for 2031?

FSL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹283, with an 80% range of ₹72-₹1,110 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability FSL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of FSL reaching ₹560 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for FSL?

FSL's P/E of 24.8x is lower than 54% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. FSL's return on equity of 17.6% ranks in the 79th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in FSL?

High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on FSL