Case study

GAEL

Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited

Mixed signals1y model +4.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

49Score

Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GAEL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) trades at ₹169,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100.

On the numbers, Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.5× earnings, ROE of 9.8%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GAEL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,762 Cr
Current price
₹169
P/E ratio
18.5×
P/B ratio
2.35×
Book value
₹72
Dividend yield
0.18%
ROCE
12.5%
ROE
9.8%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How GAEL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is GAEL overvalued? GAEL P/E vs peers

GAEL trades at 18.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

GAEL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GAEL history (22%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GAEL 2027₹111₹178₹284+5%
GAEL 2028₹96₹186₹360+10%
GAEL 2029₹87₹195₹439+16%
GAEL 2030₹81₹205₹522+21%
GAEL 2031₹74₹215₹623+27%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GAEL goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹338 within 5 years

The bull case for GAEL

  • GAEL's P/E of 18.5x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹439.

The bear case & risks

  • GAEL's return on equity of 9.8% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹87.

GAEL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years GAEL compounded at 22%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹111-₹284, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GAEL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.9%
80% range₹111-₹284
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)4%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
15.5%
80% range₹87-₹439
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)19%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
27.2%
80% range₹74-₹623
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)29%

GAEL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GAEL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GAEL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GAEL price target & forecast page.

GAEL Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GAEL scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

GAEL MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GAEL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
Zerodha32.43%3.1×
Groww32.34%3.1×
Dhan32.43%3.1×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money32.92%3.0×
PocketfulCHEAPEST31.42%3.2×
Anand Rathi32.43%3.1×
Bajaj Broking33.00%3.0×
Share India32.34%3.1×

Compare every broker on the GAEL MTF page.

About Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,762 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GAEL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GAEL analysis, FAQs

Is Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited (GAEL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 49/100, weighing fairly valued at 18.5× earnings, ROE of 9.8%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GAEL overvalued or undervalued?

GAEL trades at 18.5× earnings, fairly valued versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the GAEL share price target for 2031?

GAEL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹215, with an 80% range of ₹74-₹623 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GAEL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GAEL reaching ₹338 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for GAEL?

GAEL's P/E of 18.5x is lower than 66% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in GAEL?

GAEL's return on equity of 9.8% ranks in the 47th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on GAEL