Case study

GANDHAR

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +1.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

57Score

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GANDHAR a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) trades at ₹243,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100.

On the numbers, Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 10.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GANDHAR fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,376 Cr
Current price
₹243
P/E ratio
7.9×
P/B ratio
1.76×
Book value
₹138
Dividend yield
0.82%
ROCE
13.2%
ROE
10.5%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How GANDHAR ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener

Is GANDHAR overvalued? GANDHAR P/E vs peers

GANDHAR trades at 7.9× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

GANDHAR share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.6y of GANDHAR history (-8%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GANDHAR 2027₹143₹245₹421+1%
GANDHAR 2028₹115₹247₹531+2%
GANDHAR 2029₹98₹250₹636+3%
GANDHAR 2030₹84₹252₹755+4%
GANDHAR 2031₹75₹254₹869+5%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GANDHAR goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
52%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹485 within 5 years

The bull case for GANDHAR

  • GANDHAR's P/E of 7.9x is lower than 91% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹636.

The bear case & risks

  • GANDHAR's return on equity of 10.5% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹98.

GANDHAR volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.6 years GANDHAR compounded at -8%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹143-₹421, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GANDHAR price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.6 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.0%
80% range₹143-₹421
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)5%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
2.9%
80% range₹98-₹636
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)18%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
4.9%
80% range₹75-₹869
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)25%

GANDHAR price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GANDHAR simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GANDHAR hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GANDHAR price target & forecast page.

GANDHAR Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GANDHAR scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

GANDHAR MTF margin & leverage across 7 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GANDHAR with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 7 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha37.82%2.6×
Groww60.00%1.7×
Kotak Neo40.00%2.5×
Paytm Money100.00%1.0×
PocketfulCHEAPEST34.04%2.9×
Anand Rathi100.00%1.0×
Share India37.86%2.6×

Compare every broker on the GANDHAR MTF page.

About Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,376 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GANDHAR Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GANDHAR analysis, FAQs

Is Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) a good buy?

On the numbers, Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited (GANDHAR) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 57/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.9× earnings, ROE of 10.5%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GANDHAR overvalued or undervalued?

GANDHAR trades at 7.9× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the GANDHAR share price target for 2031?

GANDHAR's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹254, with an 80% range of ₹75-₹869 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GANDHAR doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GANDHAR reaching ₹485 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for GANDHAR?

GANDHAR's P/E of 7.9x is lower than 91% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in GANDHAR?

GANDHAR's return on equity of 10.5% ranks in the 52nd percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

More on GANDHAR