Case study

GANECOS

Ganesha Ecosphere

High-risk on the numbers1y model -26.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GANECOS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) trades at ₹921,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100.

On the numbers, Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 64.6× earnings, ROE of 3.1%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GANECOS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,468 Cr
Current price
₹921
P/E ratio
64.6×
P/B ratio
1.93×
Book value
₹476
Dividend yield
0.49%
ROCE
5.4%
ROE
3.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GANECOS overvalued? GANECOS P/E vs its sector

GANECOS's P/E of 64.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.49% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GANECOS P/E
64.6×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
GANECOS div yield
0.49%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GANECOS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GANECOS history (-20%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GANECOS 2027₹370₹684₹1,260-26%
GANECOS 2028₹213₹503₹1,203-46%
GANECOS 2029₹128₹366₹1,039-61%
GANECOS 2030₹79₹270₹907-71%
GANECOS 2031₹51₹200₹765-78%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GANECOS goes up, or doubles?

26%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
7%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,855 within 5 years

The bull case for GANECOS

  • Ganesha Ecosphere is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,039.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 64.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 3.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹128.

GANECOS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GANECOS compounded at -20%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹370₹1,260, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GANECOS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
26.3%
80% range₹370–₹1,260
P(price ↑)26%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
60.5%
80% range₹128–₹1,039
P(price ↑)13%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
78.4%
80% range₹51–₹765
P(price ↑)7%
P(price 2×)2%

GANECOS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GANECOS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GANECOS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GANECOS price target & forecast page.

GANECOS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GANECOS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GANECOS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GANECOS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST37.7%2.7×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.7%2.7×
DhanCHEAPEST37.7%2.7×

Compare every broker on the GANECOS MTF page.

GANECOS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GANECOS (this stock)64.6×0.49%₹2,468 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Ganesha Ecosphere: sector, index & market-cap context

Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,468 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GANECOS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Ganesha Ecosphere's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GANECOS analysis, FAQs

Is Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Ganesha Ecosphere (GANECOS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 22/100, weighing expensive at 64.6× earnings, ROE of 3.1%, a 26% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GANECOS overvalued or undervalued?

GANECOS trades at 64.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GANECOS share price target for 2031?

GANECOS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹200, with an 80% range of ₹51₹765 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GANECOS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GANECOS reaching ₹1,855 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for GANECOS?

Ganesha Ecosphere is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in GANECOS?

A rich 64.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 3.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 26% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on GANECOS