Case study

GARFIBRES

Garware Tech Fibres

Mixed signals1y model -6.7%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GARFIBRES a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) trades at ₹777,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.

On the numbers, Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 36.9× earnings, ROE of 16.1%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GARFIBRES fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹7,714 Cr
Current price
₹777
P/E ratio
36.9×
P/B ratio
5.71×
Book value
₹136
Dividend yield
1.03%
ROCE
22.0%
ROE
16.1%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GARFIBRES overvalued? GARFIBRES P/E vs its sector

GARFIBRES's P/E of 36.9× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.03% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GARFIBRES P/E
36.9×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
GARFIBRES div yield
1.03%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GARFIBRES share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GARFIBRES history (1%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GARFIBRES 2027₹441₹743₹1,216-7%
GARFIBRES 2028₹333₹683₹1,389-14%
GARFIBRES 2029₹265₹638₹1,549-20%
GARFIBRES 2030₹211₹594₹1,632-25%
GARFIBRES 2031₹176₹544₹1,706-32%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GARFIBRES goes up, or doubles?

43%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
34%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
11%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,593 within 5 years

The bull case for GARFIBRES

  • A healthy 16.1% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (22.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,549.

The bear case & risks

  • At 36.9× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹265.

GARFIBRES volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GARFIBRES compounded at 1%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹441₹1,216, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GARFIBRES price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.7%
80% range₹441–₹1,216
P(price ↑)43%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹265–₹1,549
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)9%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
31.6%
80% range₹176–₹1,706
P(price ↑)34%
P(price 2×)11%

GARFIBRES price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GARFIBRES simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GARFIBRES hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GARFIBRES price target & forecast page.

GARFIBRES Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GARFIBRES scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GARFIBRES MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GARFIBRES with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.3%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.3%3.0×

Compare every broker on the GARFIBRES MTF page.

GARFIBRES vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GARFIBRES (this stock)36.9×1.03%₹7,714 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Garware Tech Fibres: sector, index & market-cap context

Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,714 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GARFIBRES Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Garware Tech Fibres's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GARFIBRES analysis, FAQs

Is Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) a good buy?

On the numbers, Garware Tech Fibres (GARFIBRES) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 36.9× earnings, ROE of 16.1%, a 43% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GARFIBRES overvalued or undervalued?

GARFIBRES trades at 36.9× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GARFIBRES share price target for 2031?

GARFIBRES's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹544, with an 80% range of ₹176₹1,706 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GARFIBRES doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GARFIBRES reaching ₹1,593 (2×) within 5 years is 11%.

What is the bull case for GARFIBRES?

A healthy 16.1% return on equity. Strong ROCE (22.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in GARFIBRES?

At 36.9× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 43% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on GARFIBRES