Case study

GARUDA

GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L

Screens attractive1y model +7.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GARUDA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) trades at ₹171,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100.

On the numbers, GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.0× earnings, ROE of 31.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GARUDA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,596 Cr
Current price
₹171
P/E ratio
13.0×
P/B ratio
3.50×
Book value
₹49
Dividend yield
0.01%
ROCE
41.8%
ROE
31.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GARUDA overvalued? GARUDA P/E vs its sector

GARUDA's P/E of 13.0× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 0.01% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GARUDA P/E
13.0×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
GARUDA div yield
0.01%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GARUDA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.7y of GARUDA history (28%/yr drift, 62%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GARUDA 2027₹83₹184₹412+8%
GARUDA 2028₹64₹202₹633+19%
GARUDA 2029₹56₹221₹879+30%
GARUDA 2030₹49₹236₹1,211+39%
GARUDA 2031₹45₹263₹1,645+54%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GARUDA goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
43%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹340 within 5 years

The bull case for GARUDA

  • Trades at just 13.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • High return on equity (31.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (41.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹879.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (62%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹56.

GARUDA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.7 years GARUDA compounded at 28%/year with annualized volatility of 62%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹83₹412, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GARUDA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.7 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.9%
80% range₹83–₹412
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)17%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
29.6%
80% range₹56–₹879
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)35%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
54.3%
80% range₹45–₹1,645
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)43%

GARUDA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GARUDA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GARUDA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GARUDA price target & forecast page.

GARUDA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GARUDA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GARUDA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GARUDA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST40.9%2.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST40.9%2.4×
DhanCHEAPEST40.9%2.4×

Compare every broker on the GARUDA MTF page.

GARUDA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GARUDA (this stock)13.0×0.01%₹1,596 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L: sector, index & market-cap context

GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,596 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GARUDA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GARUDA analysis, FAQs

Is GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) a good buy?

On the numbers, GARUDA CONSTRUCT N ENG L (GARUDA) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.0× earnings, ROE of 31.2%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GARUDA overvalued or undervalued?

GARUDA trades at 13.0× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the GARUDA share price target for 2031?

GARUDA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹263, with an 80% range of ₹45₹1,645 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GARUDA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GARUDA reaching ₹340 (2×) within 5 years is 43%.

What is the bull case for GARUDA?

Trades at just 13.0× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (31.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (41.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in GARUDA?

High historical volatility (62%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GARUDA