GLAXO
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GLAXO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) trades at ₹2,363,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100.
On the numbers, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing expensive at 41.6× earnings, ROE of 45.6%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GLAXO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is GLAXO overvalued? GLAXO P/E vs its sector
GLAXO's P/E of 41.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.41% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
GLAXO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GLAXO history (-6%/yr drift, 34%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLAXO 2027 | ₹1,334 | ₹2,078 | ₹3,206 | -11% |
| GLAXO 2028 | ₹984 | ₹1,848 | ₹3,422 | -21% |
| GLAXO 2029 | ₹769 | ₹1,638 | ₹3,483 | -30% |
| GLAXO 2030 | ₹607 | ₹1,451 | ₹3,467 | -38% |
| GLAXO 2031 | ₹479 | ₹1,283 | ₹3,389 | -45% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GLAXO goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GLAXO
- High return on equity (45.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (61.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹3,483.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 41.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 17.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹769.
GLAXO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years GLAXO compounded at -6%/year with annualized volatility of 34%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,334–₹3,206, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GLAXO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GLAXO price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GLAXO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GLAXO price target & forecast page.
GLAXO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GLAXO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
GLAXO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GLAXO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.6% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.6% | 3.4× |
| Dhan | 30.0% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the GLAXO MTF page.
GLAXO vs peers,sector comparison
About GlaxoSmithKline Pharma: sector, index & market-cap context
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹40,018 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the GLAXO Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GlaxoSmithKline Pharma's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GLAXO analysis, FAQs
Is GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) a good buy?
On the numbers, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (GLAXO) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing expensive at 41.6× earnings, ROE of 45.6%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GLAXO overvalued or undervalued?
GLAXO trades at 41.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the GLAXO share price target for 2031?
GLAXO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,283, with an 80% range of ₹479–₹3,389 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GLAXO doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GLAXO reaching ₹4,664 (2×) within 5 years is 5%.
What is the bull case for GLAXO?
High return on equity (45.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (61.4%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Pays a 2.4% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in GLAXO?
A rich 41.6× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 17.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.