Case study

GMDCLTD

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited

Tread carefully1y model -0.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

34Score

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GMDCLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) trades at ₹583,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100.

On the numbers, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 32.5× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GMDCLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹18,533 Cr
Current price
₹583
P/E ratio
32.5×
P/B ratio
2.63×
Book value
₹222
Dividend yield
1.73%
ROCE
10.8%
ROE
8.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How GMDCLTD ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is GMDCLTD overvalued? GMDCLTD P/E vs peers

GMDCLTD trades at 32.5× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

GMDCLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GMDCLTD history (20%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GMDCLTD 2027₹311₹581₹1,086-0%
GMDCLTD 2028₹239₹579₹1,403-1%
GMDCLTD 2029₹195₹577₹1,705-1%
GMDCLTD 2030₹168₹575₹1,966-1%
GMDCLTD 2031₹141₹573₹2,326-2%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GMDCLTD goes up, or doubles?

50%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
49%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
26%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,166 within 5 years

The bull case for GMDCLTD

  • Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,705.

The bear case & risks

  • GMDCLTD's P/E of 32.5x is lower than 42% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • GMDCLTD's return on equity of 8.3% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹195.

GMDCLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years GMDCLTD compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹311-₹1,086, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GMDCLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.4%
80% range₹311-₹1,086
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
1.1%
80% range₹195-₹1,705
P(price ↑)50%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1.7%
80% range₹141-₹2,326
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)26%

GMDCLTD price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GMDCLTD simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GMDCLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GMDCLTD price target & forecast page.

GMDCLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GMDCLTD scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

GMDCLTD MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GMDCLTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox37.83%2.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST37.81%2.6×
Groww37.90%2.6×
DhanCHEAPEST37.81%2.6×
Kotak Neo37.88%2.6×
Paytm Money38.04%2.6×
Pocketful38.34%2.6×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST37.81%2.6×
Bajaj Broking42.00%2.4×
Share India37.84%2.6×

Compare every broker on the GMDCLTD MTF page.

About Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹18,533 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GMDCLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GMDCLTD analysis, FAQs

Is Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) a good buy?

On the numbers, Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 32.5× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 50% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GMDCLTD overvalued or undervalued?

GMDCLTD trades at 32.5× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the GMDCLTD share price target for 2031?

GMDCLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹573, with an 80% range of ₹141-₹2,326 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GMDCLTD doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GMDCLTD reaching ₹1,166 (2×) within 5 years is 26%.

What is the bull case for GMDCLTD?

Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in GMDCLTD?

GMDCLTD's P/E of 32.5x is lower than 42% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. GMDCLTD's return on equity of 8.3% ranks in the 41st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GMDCLTD