GMDCLTD
Gujarat Mineral Development
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GMDCLTD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) trades at ₹615,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100.
On the numbers, Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 34.7× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GMDCLTD fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is GMDCLTD overvalued? GMDCLTD P/E vs its sector
GMDCLTD's P/E of 34.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.64% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
GMDCLTD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GMDCLTD history (22%/yr drift, 49%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMDCLTD 2027 | ₹366 | ₹679 | ₹1,263 | +11% |
| GMDCLTD 2028 | ₹315 | ₹767 | ₹1,846 | +25% |
| GMDCLTD 2029 | ₹280 | ₹854 | ₹2,526 | +39% |
| GMDCLTD 2030 | ₹265 | ₹939 | ₹3,283 | +53% |
| GMDCLTD 2031 | ₹253 | ₹1,043 | ₹4,193 | +70% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GMDCLTD goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GMDCLTD
- Gujarat Mineral Development is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹2,526.
The bear case & risks
- At 34.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹280.
GMDCLTD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years GMDCLTD compounded at 22%/year with annualized volatility of 49%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹366–₹1,263, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GMDCLTD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GMDCLTD price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GMDCLTD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GMDCLTD price target & forecast page.
GMDCLTD Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GMDCLTD scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
GMDCLTD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GMDCLTD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 39.1% | 2.6× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 39.1% | 2.6× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 39.1% | 2.6× |
Compare every broker on the GMDCLTD MTF page.
GMDCLTD vs peers,sector comparison
About Gujarat Mineral Development: sector, index & market-cap context
Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹19,525 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the GMDCLTD Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat Mineral Development's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GMDCLTD analysis, FAQs
Is Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) a good buy?
On the numbers, Gujarat Mineral Development (GMDCLTD) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 34/100, weighing premium at 34.7× earnings, ROE of 8.3%, a 58% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GMDCLTD overvalued or undervalued?
GMDCLTD trades at 34.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the GMDCLTD share price target for 2031?
GMDCLTD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹1,043, with an 80% range of ₹253–₹4,193 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GMDCLTD doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GMDCLTD reaching ₹1,226 (2×) within 5 years is 44%.
What is the bull case for GMDCLTD?
Gujarat Mineral Development is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in GMDCLTD?
At 34.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 8.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. High historical volatility (49%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.