Case study

GNA

GNA Axles

Mixed signals1y model -5.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

GNA Axles (GNA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GNA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

GNA Axles (GNA) trades at ₹422,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100.

On the numbers, GNA Axles (GNA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.5× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GNA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,807 Cr
Current price
₹422
P/E ratio
15.5×
P/B ratio
1.80×
Book value
₹234
Dividend yield
0.71%
ROCE
14.3%
ROE
12.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GNA overvalued? GNA P/E vs its sector

GNA's P/E of 15.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.5×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.71% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GNA P/E
15.5×
Peer median P/E
15.5×
GNA div yield
0.71%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GNA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GNA history (2%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GNA 2027₹236₹391₹648-5%
GNA 2028₹175₹368₹752-11%
GNA 2029₹144₹344₹834-17%
GNA 2030₹116₹325₹893-21%
GNA 2031₹97₹303₹951-27%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GNA goes up, or doubles?

45%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
37%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
13%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹826 within 5 years

The bull case for GNA

  • A 15.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • A healthy 12.2% return on equity.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹834.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 45% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹144.

GNA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GNA compounded at 2%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹236₹648, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GNA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
5.3%
80% range₹236–₹648
P(price ↑)45%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
16.7%
80% range₹144–₹834
P(price ↑)40%
P(price 2×)10%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
26.7%
80% range₹97–₹951
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)13%

GNA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GNA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GNA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GNA price target & forecast page.

GNA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GNA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GNA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GNA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST35.0%2.9×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the GNA MTF page.

GNA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GNA (this stock)15.5×0.71%₹1,807 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About GNA Axles: sector, index & market-cap context

GNA Axles (GNA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,807 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GNA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GNA Axles's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GNA analysis, FAQs

Is GNA Axles (GNA) a good buy?

On the numbers, GNA Axles (GNA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 51/100, weighing fairly valued at 15.5× earnings, ROE of 12.2%, a 45% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GNA overvalued or undervalued?

GNA trades at 15.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.5×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GNA share price target for 2031?

GNA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹303, with an 80% range of ₹97₹951 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GNA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GNA reaching ₹826 (2×) within 5 years is 13%.

What is the bull case for GNA?

A 15.5× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. A healthy 12.2% return on equity.

What are the risks in GNA?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 45% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on GNA