GNFC
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GNFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) trades at ₹536,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.6× earnings, ROE of 9.1%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GNFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
How GNFC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
- GNFC's market cap of 7,869 Cr ranks in the 72nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- GNFC's book value of ₹620 ranks in the 92nd percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- GNFC's promoter holding of 41.3% ranks in the 18th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- GNFC's 3-year profit (PAT) growth of -18.0% ranks in the 13th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- GNFC's 3-year revenue growth of -9.0% ranks in the 11th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for GNFC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.
Is GNFC overvalued? GNFC P/E vs peers
GNFC trades at 7.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.
GNFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GNFC history (13%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNFC 2027 | ₹373 | ₹555 | ₹827 | +4% |
| GNFC 2028 | ₹330 | ₹576 | ₹1,005 | +7% |
| GNFC 2029 | ₹294 | ₹597 | ₹1,209 | +11% |
| GNFC 2030 | ₹274 | ₹619 | ₹1,394 | +16% |
| GNFC 2031 | ₹264 | ₹641 | ₹1,555 | +20% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GNFC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GNFC
- GNFC's P/E of 7.6x is lower than 91% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Low price-to-book of 0.86×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- GNFC's dividend yield of 3.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,209.
The bear case & risks
- GNFC's return on equity of 9.1% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹294.
GNFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 9.8 years GNFC compounded at 13%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹373-₹827, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GNFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GNFC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GNFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GNFC price target & forecast page.
GNFC Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GNFC scores 4/8, mixed financial health.
GNFC MTF margin & leverage across 11 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GNFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 11 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.00% | 2.9× |
| Zerodha | 30.46% | 3.3× |
| Groww | 30.50% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.46% | 3.3× |
| Kotak Neo | 30.49% | 3.3× |
| Paytm Money | 30.50% | 3.3× |
| Pocketful | 30.61% | 3.3× |
| Fyers | 31.25% | 3.2× |
| Anand Rathi | 30.46% | 3.3× |
| Bajaj Broking | 31.00% | 3.2× |
| Share India | 30.47% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the GNFC MTF page.
About Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹7,869 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.
How the GNFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GNFC analysis, FAQs
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers And Chemicals Limited (GNFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 7.6× earnings, ROE of 9.1%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GNFC overvalued or undervalued?
GNFC trades at 7.6× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.
What is the GNFC share price target for 2031?
GNFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹641, with an 80% range of ₹264-₹1,555 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GNFC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GNFC reaching ₹1,071 (2×) within 5 years is 23%.
What is the bull case for GNFC?
GNFC's P/E of 7.6x is lower than 91% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.86×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. GNFC's dividend yield of 3.4% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
What are the risks in GNFC?
GNFC's return on equity of 9.1% ranks in the 44th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.