GNFC
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GNFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) trades at ₹582,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100.
On the numbers, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.6× earnings, ROE of 9.1%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GNFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is GNFC overvalued? GNFC P/E vs its sector
GNFC's P/E of 10.6× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 3.10% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
GNFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GNFC history (-11%/yr drift, 32%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GNFC 2027 | ₹321 | ₹481 | ₹719 | -15% |
| GNFC 2028 | ₹232 | ₹411 | ₹729 | -28% |
| GNFC 2029 | ₹177 | ₹348 | ₹699 | -39% |
| GNFC 2030 | ₹133 | ₹296 | ₹673 | -48% |
| GNFC 2031 | ₹103 | ₹250 | ₹623 | -56% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GNFC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GNFC
- Trades at just 10.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.94×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹699.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 9.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹177.
GNFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years GNFC compounded at -11%/year with annualized volatility of 32%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹321–₹719, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GNFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GNFC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GNFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GNFC price target & forecast page.
GNFC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GNFC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
GNFC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GNFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 30.8% | 3.3× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 30.8% | 3.3× |
Compare every broker on the GNFC MTF page.
GNFC vs peers,sector comparison
About Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals: sector, index & market-cap context
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹8,550 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the GNFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GNFC analysis, FAQs
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) a good buy?
On the numbers, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals (GNFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 55/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.6× earnings, ROE of 9.1%, a 30% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GNFC overvalued or undervalued?
GNFC trades at 10.6× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the GNFC share price target for 2031?
GNFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹250, with an 80% range of ₹103–₹623 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GNFC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GNFC reaching ₹1,135 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for GNFC?
Trades at just 10.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.94×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Pays a 3.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in GNFC?
Return on equity is a soft 9.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 30% chance of finishing above today's price.