Case study

GODFRYPHLP

Godfrey Phillips

Worth a closer look1y model +4.9%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GODFRYPHLP a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) trades at ₹2,288,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.

On the numbers, Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.3× earnings, ROE of 26.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GODFRYPHLP fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹35,522 Cr
Current price
₹2,288
P/E ratio
23.3×
P/B ratio
5.75×
Book value
₹398
Dividend yield
1.38%
ROCE
32.8%
ROE
26.6%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GODFRYPHLP overvalued? GODFRYPHLP P/E vs its sector

GODFRYPHLP's P/E of 23.3× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.38% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GODFRYPHLP P/E
23.3×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
GODFRYPHLP div yield
1.38%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GODFRYPHLP share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GODFRYPHLP history (23%/yr drift, 61%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GODFRYPHLP 2027₹1,085₹2,383₹5,192+5%
GODFRYPHLP 2028₹829₹2,481₹7,425+9%
GODFRYPHLP 2029₹681₹2,593₹10,033+14%
GODFRYPHLP 2030₹583₹2,724₹12,938+20%
GODFRYPHLP 2031₹508₹2,815₹16,621+24%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GODFRYPHLP goes up, or doubles?

53%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
56%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
37%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹4,542 within 5 years

The bull case for GODFRYPHLP

  • A 23.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (26.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (32.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹10,033.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (61%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹681.

GODFRYPHLP volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GODFRYPHLP compounded at 23%/year with annualized volatility of 61%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹1,085₹5,192, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GODFRYPHLP price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.9%
80% range₹1,085–₹5,192
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)14%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
14.2%
80% range₹681–₹10,033
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)30%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
24.0%
80% range₹508–₹16,621
P(price ↑)56%
P(price 2×)37%

GODFRYPHLP price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GODFRYPHLP simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GODFRYPHLP hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GODFRYPHLP price target & forecast page.

GODFRYPHLP Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GODFRYPHLP scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GODFRYPHLP MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GODFRYPHLP with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox40.8%2.5×
Zerodha34.7%2.9×
DhanCHEAPEST33.8%3.0×

Compare every broker on the GODFRYPHLP MTF page.

GODFRYPHLP vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GODFRYPHLP (this stock)23.3×1.38%₹35,522 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Godfrey Phillips: sector, index & market-cap context

Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹35,522 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the GODFRYPHLP Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Godfrey Phillips's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GODFRYPHLP analysis, FAQs

Is Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) a good buy?

On the numbers, Godfrey Phillips (GODFRYPHLP) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 23.3× earnings, ROE of 26.6%, a 53% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GODFRYPHLP overvalued or undervalued?

GODFRYPHLP trades at 23.3× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GODFRYPHLP share price target for 2031?

GODFRYPHLP's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,815, with an 80% range of ₹508₹16,621 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GODFRYPHLP doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GODFRYPHLP reaching ₹4,542 (2×) within 5 years is 37%.

What is the bull case for GODFRYPHLP?

A 23.3× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (26.6%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (32.8%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in GODFRYPHLP?

High historical volatility (61%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GODFRYPHLP