GOLD1
Kotak Gold ETF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
Kotak Gold ETF (GOLD1) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GOLD1 a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, Kotak Gold ETF (GOLD1) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GOLD1 share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of GOLD1 history (36%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD1 2027 | ₹124 | ₹170 | ₹234 | +39% |
| GOLD1 2028 | ₹148 | ₹233 | ₹368 | +91% |
| GOLD1 2029 | ₹189 | ₹324 | ₹574 | +165% |
| GOLD1 2030 | ₹240 | ₹448 | ₹861 | +267% |
| GOLD1 2031 | ₹303 | ₹624 | ₹1,264 | +410% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GOLD1 goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GOLD1
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹170 (+39%).
- Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹574.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹189.
GOLD1 volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.9 years GOLD1 compounded at 36%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹124–₹234, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GOLD1 price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GOLD1 price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GOLD1 hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GOLD1 price target & forecast page.
GOLD1 MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GOLD1 with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the GOLD1 MTF page.
GOLD1 vs peers,sector comparison
About Kotak Gold ETF: sector, index & market-cap context
Kotak Gold ETF (GOLD1) is an NSE-listed company.
How the GOLD1 Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Kotak Gold ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GOLD1 analysis, FAQs
Is Kotak Gold ETF (GOLD1) a good buy?
On the numbers, Kotak Gold ETF (GOLD1) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GOLD1 overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for GOLD1 are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the GOLD1 share price target for 2031?
GOLD1's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹624, with an 80% range of ₹303–₹1,264 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GOLD1 doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GOLD1 reaching ₹244 (2×) within 5 years is 96%.
What is the bull case for GOLD1?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹170 (+39%). Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in GOLD1?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.