Case study

GOLDETF

Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF

Worth a closer look1y model +38.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF (GOLDETF) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GOLDETF a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF (GOLDETF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GOLDETF share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GOLDETF history (35%/yr drift, 24%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GOLDETF 2027₹144₹195₹265+38%
GOLDETF 2028₹175₹270₹414+91%
GOLDETF 2029₹220₹370₹633+163%
GOLDETF 2030₹276₹509₹948+261%
GOLDETF 2031₹359₹705₹1,409+400%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GOLDETF goes up, or doubles?

91%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
100%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
96%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹282 within 5 years

The bull case for GOLDETF

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹195 (+38%).
  • Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹633.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹220.

GOLDETF volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GOLDETF compounded at 35%/year with annualized volatility of 24%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹144₹265, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GOLDETF price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
38.5%
80% range₹144–₹265
P(price ↑)91%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
162.5%
80% range₹220–₹633
P(price ↑)99%
P(price 2×)75%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
400.3%
80% range₹359–₹1,409
P(price ↑)100%
P(price 2×)96%

GOLDETF price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GOLDETF simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GOLDETF hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GOLDETF price target & forecast page.

GOLDETF MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GOLDETF with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST28.4%3.5×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST28.4%3.5×
DhanCHEAPEST28.4%3.5×

Compare every broker on the GOLDETF MTF page.

GOLDETF vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GOLDETF (this stock)
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF: sector, index & market-cap context

Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF (GOLDETF) is an NSE-listed company.

How the GOLDETF Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GOLDETF analysis, FAQs

Is Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF (GOLDETF) a good buy?

On the numbers, Mirae AMC - MAGOLDETF (GOLDETF) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GOLDETF overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for GOLDETF are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the GOLDETF share price target for 2031?

GOLDETF's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹705, with an 80% range of ₹359₹1,409 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GOLDETF doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GOLDETF reaching ₹282 (2×) within 5 years is 96%.

What is the bull case for GOLDETF?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹195 (+38%). Relatively low volatility (24%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in GOLDETF?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on GOLDETF