Case study

GOLDIAM

Goldiam International

Worth a closer look1y model +44.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GOLDIAM a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) trades at ₹469,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 18.5%, a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GOLDIAM fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹5,309 Cr
Current price
₹469
P/E ratio
31.1×
P/B ratio
4.79×
Book value
₹98
Dividend yield
0.64%
ROCE
23.9%
ROE
18.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is GOLDIAM overvalued? GOLDIAM P/E vs its sector

GOLDIAM's P/E of 31.1× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.64% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

GOLDIAM P/E
31.1×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
GOLDIAM div yield
0.64%
Peer median yield
1.65%

GOLDIAM share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GOLDIAM history (55%/yr drift, 63%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GOLDIAM 2027₹308₹685₹1,515+44%
GOLDIAM 2028₹316₹982₹3,048+107%
GOLDIAM 2029₹348₹1,416₹5,499+198%
GOLDIAM 2030₹397₹1,999₹9,856+321%
GOLDIAM 2031₹475₹2,876₹17,035+506%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GOLDIAM goes up, or doubles?

72%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
90%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
79%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹949 within 5 years

The bull case for GOLDIAM

  • High return on equity (18.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (23.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹685 (+44%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹5,499.

The bear case & risks

  • At 31.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • High historical volatility (63%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹348.

GOLDIAM volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GOLDIAM compounded at 55%/year with annualized volatility of 63%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹308₹1,515, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GOLDIAM price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
44.3%
80% range₹308–₹1,515
P(price ↑)72%
P(price 2×)30%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
198.3%
80% range₹348–₹5,499
P(price ↑)84%
P(price 2×)64%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
506.1%
80% range₹475–₹17,035
P(price ↑)90%
P(price 2×)79%

GOLDIAM price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GOLDIAM simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GOLDIAM hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GOLDIAM price target & forecast page.

GOLDIAM Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GOLDIAM scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

GOLDIAM MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GOLDIAM with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST42.1%2.4×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST42.1%2.4×
DhanCHEAPEST42.1%2.4×

Compare every broker on the GOLDIAM MTF page.

GOLDIAM vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GOLDIAM (this stock)31.1×0.64%₹5,309 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Goldiam International: sector, index & market-cap context

Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,309 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GOLDIAM Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Goldiam International's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GOLDIAM analysis, FAQs

Is Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) a good buy?

On the numbers, Goldiam International (GOLDIAM) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing premium at 31.1× earnings, ROE of 18.5%, a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GOLDIAM overvalued or undervalued?

GOLDIAM trades at 31.1× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GOLDIAM share price target for 2031?

GOLDIAM's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2,876, with an 80% range of ₹475₹17,035 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GOLDIAM doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GOLDIAM reaching ₹949 (2×) within 5 years is 79%.

What is the bull case for GOLDIAM?

High return on equity (18.5%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (23.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹685 (+44%).

What are the risks in GOLDIAM?

At 31.1× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. High historical volatility (63%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GOLDIAM