Case study

GROWWDEFNC

Groww Nifty India Defence ETF

Worth a closer look1y model +7.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

58Score

Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (GROWWDEFNC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GROWWDEFNC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.

On the numbers, Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (GROWWDEFNC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

How GROWWDEFNC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

GROWWDEFNC is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.

GROWWDEFNC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.8y of GROWWDEFNC history (21%/yr drift, 29%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GROWWDEFNC 2027₹73₹105₹151+8%
GROWWDEFNC 2028₹68₹113₹189+16%
GROWWDEFNC 2029₹65₹122₹228+25%
GROWWDEFNC 2030₹63₹131₹275+35%
GROWWDEFNC 2031₹63₹142₹321+46%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GROWWDEFNC goes up, or doubles?

60%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
73%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
30%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹194 within 5 years

The bull case for GROWWDEFNC

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹105 (+8%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹228.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹65.

GROWWDEFNC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.8 years GROWWDEFNC compounded at 21%/year with annualized volatility of 29%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹73-₹151, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GROWWDEFNC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
7.8%
80% range₹73-₹151
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
25.4%
80% range₹65-₹228
P(price ↑)68%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
45.8%
80% range₹63-₹321
P(price ↑)73%
P(price 2×)30%

GROWWDEFNC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GROWWDEFNC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GROWWDEFNC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GROWWDEFNC price target & forecast page.

GROWWDEFNC MTF margin & leverage across 8 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GROWWDEFNC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 8 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox27.48%3.6×
Zerodha27.46%3.6×
Groww27.51%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST27.46%3.6×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money28.16%3.6×
Fyers27.78%3.6×
Anand Rathi27.46%3.6×

Compare every broker on the GROWWDEFNC MTF page.

About Groww Nifty India Defence ETF: sector, index & market-cap context

Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (GROWWDEFNC) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GROWWDEFNC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Groww Nifty India Defence ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GROWWDEFNC analysis, FAQs

Is Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (GROWWDEFNC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Groww Nifty India Defence ETF (GROWWDEFNC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 60% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GROWWDEFNC overvalued or undervalued?

Valuation ratios for GROWWDEFNC are tracked live on Downstox.

What is the GROWWDEFNC share price target for 2031?

GROWWDEFNC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹142, with an 80% range of ₹63-₹321 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GROWWDEFNC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GROWWDEFNC reaching ₹194 (2×) within 5 years is 30%.

What is the bull case for GROWWDEFNC?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 60% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹105 (+8%).

What are the risks in GROWWDEFNC?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

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