Case study

GSFC

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +4.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

61Score

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GSFC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) trades at ₹161,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.

On the numbers, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.6× earnings, ROE of 5.5%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GSFC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,424 Cr
Current price
₹161
P/E ratio
9.6×
P/B ratio
0.52×
Book value
₹308
Dividend yield
3.10%
ROCE
7.2%
ROE
5.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How GSFC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold a debt-to-equity ratio figure for GSFC, as of 9 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is GSFC overvalued? GSFC P/E vs peers

GSFC trades at 9.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

GSFC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of GSFC history (8%/yr drift, 31%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GSFC 2027₹114₹168₹250+4%
GSFC 2028₹101₹176₹308+9%
GSFC 2029₹92₹184₹368+14%
GSFC 2030₹86₹192₹430+19%
GSFC 2031₹82₹201₹492+24%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GSFC goes up, or doubles?

55%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
62%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹322 within 5 years

The bull case for GSFC

  • GSFC's P/E of 9.6x is lower than 87% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Low price-to-book of 0.52×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • GSFC's dividend yield of 3.1% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹368.

The bear case & risks

  • GSFC's return on equity of 5.5% ranks in the 31st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹92.

GSFC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years GSFC compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 31%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹114-₹250, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GSFC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
4.5%
80% range₹114-₹250
P(price ↑)55%
P(price 2×)2%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
14.1%
80% range₹92-₹368
P(price ↑)60%
P(price 2×)15%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
24.5%
80% range₹82-₹492
P(price ↑)62%
P(price 2×)25%

GSFC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GSFC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GSFC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GSFC price target & forecast page.

GSFC Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GSFC scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

GSFC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GSFC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.00%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST29.95%3.3×
Groww30.09%3.3×
Dhan30.00%3.3×
Kotak Neo34.97%2.9×
Paytm Money30.21%3.3×
Pocketful30.34%3.3×
Anand RathiCHEAPEST29.95%3.3×
Bajaj Broking33.00%3.0×
Share India30.07%3.3×

Compare every broker on the GSFC MTF page.

About Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,424 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GSFC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GSFC analysis, FAQs

Is Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.6× earnings, ROE of 5.5%, a 55% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GSFC overvalued or undervalued?

GSFC trades at 9.6× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the GSFC share price target for 2031?

GSFC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹201, with an 80% range of ₹82-₹492 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GSFC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GSFC reaching ₹322 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for GSFC?

GSFC's P/E of 9.6x is lower than 87% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Low price-to-book of 0.52×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. GSFC's dividend yield of 3.1% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in GSFC?

GSFC's return on equity of 5.5% ranks in the 31st percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

More on GSFC