Case study

GSMFOILS

GSM Foils Ltd

Screens attractive1y model -1.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

71Score

GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

What the numbers say about GSMFOILS, and the method behind each one.

GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) trades at ₹103,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100.

On the numbers, GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.1× earnings, ROE of 37.5%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GSMFOILS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹145 Cr
Current price
₹103
P/E ratio
6.1×
P/B ratio
1.95×
Book value
₹53
ROCE
35.4%
ROE
37.5%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How GSMFOILS ranks against the 2,979 companies in our screener

We do not hold a 3-year revenue growth figure for GSMFOILS, as of 13 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is GSMFOILS overvalued? GSMFOILS P/E vs peers

GSMFOILS trades at 6.1× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

GSMFOILS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.2y of GSMFOILS history (54%/yr drift, 51%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GSMFOILS 2027₹56₹107₹202-1%
GSMFOILS 2028₹43₹106₹262-2%
GSMFOILS 2029₹34₹104₹317-3%
GSMFOILS 2030₹28₹103₹381-5%
GSMFOILS 2031₹24₹102₹436-6%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GSMFOILS goes up, or doubles?

49%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
48%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹216 within 5 years

The bull case for GSMFOILS

  • GSMFOILS's P/E of 6.1x is lower than 92% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.
  • GSMFOILS's return on equity of 37.5% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.
  • GSMFOILS's return on capital employed of 35.4% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹317.

The bear case & risks

  • High historical volatility (51%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹34.

GSMFOILS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.2 years GSMFOILS compounded at 54%/year with annualized volatility of 51%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹56-₹202, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GSMFOILS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.2 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.2%
80% range₹56-₹202
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.5%
80% range₹34-₹317
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)20%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
5.8%
80% range₹24-₹436
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)25%

GSMFOILS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GSMFOILS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GSMFOILS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GSMFOILS price target & forecast page.

GSMFOILS Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. GSMFOILS scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

About GSM Foils Ltd: sector, index & market-cap context

GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹145 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the GSMFOILS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GSM Foils Ltd's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GSMFOILS analysis, FAQs

Is GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) a good buy?

On the numbers, GSM Foils Ltd (GSMFOILS) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 71/100, weighing inexpensive at 6.1× earnings, ROE of 37.5%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GSMFOILS overvalued or undervalued?

GSMFOILS trades at 6.1× earnings, inexpensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the GSMFOILS share price target for 2031?

GSMFOILS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹102, with an 80% range of ₹24-₹436 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GSMFOILS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GSMFOILS reaching ₹216 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for GSMFOILS?

GSMFOILS's P/E of 6.1x is lower than 92% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026. GSMFOILS's return on equity of 37.5% ranks in the top 4% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026. GSMFOILS's return on capital employed of 35.4% ranks in the top 5% of the 2,979 NSE companies in our screener, as of 13 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in GSMFOILS?

High historical volatility (51%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GSMFOILS

For information and education only. Downstox is a data and analytics platform, not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or Investment Adviser. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Any scores, ranks, targets or scenarios are model estimates shown with their method, not forecasts or assured outcomes. Markets carry risk; do your own research and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.