GTPL
GTPL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
GTPL (GTPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is GTPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
GTPL (GTPL) trades at ₹64,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100.
On the numbers, GTPL (GTPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 44.5× earnings, ROE of 1.4%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
GTPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is GTPL overvalued? GTPL P/E vs its sector
GTPL's P/E of 44.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 3.15% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
GTPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GTPL history (-50%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTPL 2027 | ₹23 | ₹36 | ₹58 | -44% |
| GTPL 2028 | ₹11 | ₹21 | ₹40 | -68% |
| GTPL 2029 | ₹5 | ₹11 | ₹26 | -82% |
| GTPL 2030 | ₹3 | ₹6 | ₹17 | -90% |
| GTPL 2031 | ₹1 | ₹4 | ₹11 | -94% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability GTPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for GTPL
- Low price-to-book of 0.62×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Pays a 3.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹26.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 44.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 1.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹5.
GTPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years GTPL compounded at -50%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹23–₹58, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
GTPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
GTPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds GTPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the GTPL price target & forecast page.
GTPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GTPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
GTPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GTPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| DhanCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the GTPL MTF page.
GTPL vs peers,sector comparison
About GTPL: sector, index & market-cap context
GTPL (GTPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹715 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the GTPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GTPL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
GTPL analysis, FAQs
Is GTPL (GTPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, GTPL (GTPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 44.5× earnings, ROE of 1.4%, a 6% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is GTPL overvalued or undervalued?
GTPL trades at 44.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the GTPL share price target for 2031?
GTPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹11 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability GTPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of GTPL reaching ₹129 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for GTPL?
Low price-to-book of 0.62×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Pays a 3.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in GTPL?
A rich 44.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 1.4%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 6% chance of finishing above today's price.