Case study

GVPIL

GVPIL

Worth a closer look1y model +38.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

GVPIL (GVPIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is GVPIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

GVPIL (GVPIL) trades at ₹1,022,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100.

On the numbers, GVPIL (GVPIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.6× earnings, ROE of 77.7%, a 71% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

GVPIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹6,853 Cr
Current price
₹1,022
P/E ratio
19.6×
P/B ratio
11.80×
Book value
₹87
ROCE
80.0%
ROE
77.7%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is GVPIL overvalued? GVPIL P/E vs its sector

GVPIL's P/E of 19.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

GVPIL P/E
19.6×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

GVPIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of GVPIL history (49%/yr drift, 58%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
GVPIL 2027₹683₹1,454₹3,091+38%
GVPIL 2028₹699₹2,030₹5,904+93%
GVPIL 2029₹763₹2,788₹10,228+165%
GVPIL 2030₹873₹3,922₹17,033+273%
GVPIL 2031₹1,033₹5,436₹27,642+416%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability GVPIL goes up, or doubles?

71%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
90%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
77%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹2,105 within 5 years

The bull case for GVPIL

  • A 19.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (77.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (80.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 71% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹1,454 (+38%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹10,228.

The bear case & risks

  • A steep 11.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • High historical volatility (58%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹763.

GVPIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years GVPIL compounded at 49%/year with annualized volatility of 58%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹683₹3,091, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

GVPIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
38.2%
80% range₹683–₹3,091
P(price ↑)71%
P(price 2×)26%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
164.9%
80% range₹763–₹10,228
P(price ↑)83%
P(price 2×)61%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
416.4%
80% range₹1,033–₹27,642
P(price ↑)90%
P(price 2×)77%

GVPIL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
GVPIL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds GVPIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the GVPIL price target & forecast page.

GVPIL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. GVPIL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

GVPIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy GVPIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
ZerodhaCHEAPEST50.0%2.0×

Compare every broker on the GVPIL MTF page.

GVPIL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
GVPIL (this stock)19.6×₹6,853 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About GVPIL: sector, index & market-cap context

GVPIL (GVPIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹6,853 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the GVPIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of GVPIL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

GVPIL analysis, FAQs

Is GVPIL (GVPIL) a good buy?

On the numbers, GVPIL (GVPIL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 63/100, weighing fairly valued at 19.6× earnings, ROE of 77.7%, a 71% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is GVPIL overvalued or undervalued?

GVPIL trades at 19.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the GVPIL share price target for 2031?

GVPIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹5,436, with an 80% range of ₹1,033₹27,642 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability GVPIL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of GVPIL reaching ₹2,105 (2×) within 5 years is 77%.

What is the bull case for GVPIL?

A 19.6× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (77.7%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (80.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in GVPIL?

A steep 11.8× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. High historical volatility (58%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on GVPIL