Case study

HARDWYN

Hardwyn India Limited

High-risk on the numbers1y model +1.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

28Score

Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HARDWYN a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) trades at ₹11,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 58.3× earnings, ROE of 3.3%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HARDWYN fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹770 Cr
Current price
₹11
P/E ratio
58.3×
P/B ratio
1.90×
Book value
₹6
ROCE
4.8%
ROE
3.3%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How HARDWYN ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is HARDWYN overvalued? HARDWYN P/E vs peers

HARDWYN trades at 58.3× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HARDWYN share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 8.1y of HARDWYN history (47%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HARDWYN 2027₹6₹11₹22+1%
HARDWYN 2028₹4₹12₹30+3%
HARDWYN 2029₹4₹12₹37+4%
HARDWYN 2030₹3₹12₹45+6%
HARDWYN 2031₹3₹12₹53+8%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HARDWYN goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
29%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹23 within 5 years

The bull case for HARDWYN

  • Hardwyn India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹37.

The bear case & risks

  • HARDWYN's P/E of 58.3x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HARDWYN's return on equity of 3.3% ranks in the 24th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹4.

HARDWYN volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 8.1 years HARDWYN compounded at 47%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹6-₹22, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HARDWYN price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 8.1 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.5%
80% range₹6-₹22
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.5%
80% range₹4-₹37
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)23%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.6%
80% range₹3-₹53
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)29%

HARDWYN price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HARDWYN simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HARDWYN hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HARDWYN price target & forecast page.

HARDWYN Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HARDWYN scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

HARDWYN MTF margin & leverage across 5 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HARDWYN with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 5 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Groww40.61%2.5×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money100.00%1.0×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Share IndiaCHEAPEST40.54%2.5×

Compare every broker on the HARDWYN MTF page.

About Hardwyn India Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹770 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HARDWYN Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hardwyn India Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HARDWYN analysis, FAQs

Is Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hardwyn India Limited (HARDWYN) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 58.3× earnings, ROE of 3.3%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HARDWYN overvalued or undervalued?

HARDWYN trades at 58.3× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HARDWYN share price target for 2031?

HARDWYN's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹12, with an 80% range of ₹3-₹53 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HARDWYN doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HARDWYN reaching ₹23 (2×) within 5 years is 29%.

What is the bull case for HARDWYN?

Hardwyn India Limited is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in HARDWYN?

HARDWYN's P/E of 58.3x is lower than 22% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HARDWYN's return on equity of 3.3% ranks in the 24th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on HARDWYN