Case study

HARSHA

Harsha Engineers International

Tread carefully1y model -20.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HARSHA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) trades at ₹436,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100.

On the numbers, Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 25.6× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HARSHA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹3,977 Cr
Current price
₹436
P/E ratio
25.6×
P/B ratio
2.83×
Book value
₹154
Dividend yield
0.34%
ROCE
14.3%
ROE
11.7%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HARSHA overvalued? HARSHA P/E vs its sector

HARSHA's P/E of 25.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.34% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

HARSHA P/E
25.6×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
HARSHA div yield
0.34%
Peer median yield
1.65%

HARSHA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HARSHA history (-16%/yr drift, 36%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HARSHA 2027₹218₹343₹548-21%
HARSHA 2028₹144₹276₹533-36%
HARSHA 2029₹99₹221₹492-49%
HARSHA 2030₹71₹176₹442-59%
HARSHA 2031₹51₹141₹402-67%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HARSHA goes up, or doubles?

27%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
9%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
1%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹862 within 5 years

The bull case for HARSHA

  • Harsha Engineers International is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹492.

The bear case & risks

  • At 25.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 11.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹99.

HARSHA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HARSHA compounded at -16%/year with annualized volatility of 36%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹218₹548, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HARSHA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
20.5%
80% range₹218–₹548
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
48.7%
80% range₹99–₹492
P(price ↑)14%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
67.4%
80% range₹51–₹402
P(price ↑)9%
P(price 2×)1%

HARSHA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HARSHA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HARSHA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HARSHA price target & forecast page.

HARSHA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HARSHA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HARSHA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HARSHA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox35.0%2.9×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.4%3.2×
Dhan35.0%2.9×

Compare every broker on the HARSHA MTF page.

HARSHA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HARSHA (this stock)25.6×0.34%₹3,977 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Harsha Engineers International: sector, index & market-cap context

Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹3,977 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the HARSHA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Harsha Engineers International's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HARSHA analysis, FAQs

Is Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) a good buy?

On the numbers, Harsha Engineers International (HARSHA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 33/100, weighing premium at 25.6× earnings, ROE of 11.7%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HARSHA overvalued or undervalued?

HARSHA trades at 25.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the HARSHA share price target for 2031?

HARSHA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹141, with an 80% range of ₹51₹402 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HARSHA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HARSHA reaching ₹862 (2×) within 5 years is 1%.

What is the bull case for HARSHA?

Harsha Engineers International is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in HARSHA?

At 25.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 11.7%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HARSHA