Case study

HCC

Hindustan Construction Company Limited

Tread carefully1y model -1.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

38Score

Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HCC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) trades at ₹21,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100.

On the numbers, Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing premium at 39.7× earnings, ROE of 11.9%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HCC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹5,375 Cr
Current price
₹21
P/E ratio
39.7×
P/B ratio
2.52×
Book value
₹8
ROCE
24.8%
ROE
11.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/8

How HCC ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is HCC overvalued? HCC P/E vs peers

HCC trades at 39.7× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HCC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of HCC history (-0%/yr drift, 52%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HCC 2027₹10₹20₹40-2%
HCC 2028₹8₹20₹51-4%
HCC 2029₹6₹19₹62-5%
HCC 2030₹5₹19₹73-7%
HCC 2031₹4₹19₹83-9%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HCC goes up, or doubles?

49%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
47%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹41 within 5 years

The bull case for HCC

  • HCC's return on capital employed of 24.8% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹62.

The bear case & risks

  • HCC's P/E of 39.7x is lower than 34% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HCC's return on equity of 11.9% ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹6.

HCC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years HCC compounded at -0%/year with annualized volatility of 52%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹10-₹40, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HCC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.8%
80% range₹10-₹40
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)9%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
5.4%
80% range₹6-₹62
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)21%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
8.8%
80% range₹4-₹83
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)25%

HCC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HCC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HCC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HCC price target & forecast page.

HCC Piotroski F-Score: 4/8, how financially strong is it?

4/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HCC scores 4/8, mixed financial health.

HCC MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HCC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST38.66%2.6×
Zerodha38.74%2.6×
Groww38.86%2.6×
Dhan38.74%2.6×
Kotak Neo100.00%1.0×
Paytm Money54.41%1.8×
Pocketful39.31%2.5×
Anand Rathi38.74%2.6×
Bajaj Broking42.00%2.4×
Share India38.82%2.6×

Compare every broker on the HCC MTF page.

Which ace investors hold HCC?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

About Hindustan Construction Company Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,375 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HCC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindustan Construction Company Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HCC analysis, FAQs

Is Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hindustan Construction Company Limited (HCC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 38/100, weighing premium at 39.7× earnings, ROE of 11.9%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HCC overvalued or undervalued?

HCC trades at 39.7× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HCC share price target for 2031?

HCC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹19, with an 80% range of ₹4-₹83 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HCC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HCC reaching ₹41 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for HCC?

HCC's return on capital employed of 24.8% ranks in the 88th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in HCC?

HCC's P/E of 39.7x is lower than 34% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HCC's return on equity of 11.9% ranks in the 59th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (52%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on HCC