HDBFS
HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HDBFS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) trades at ₹723,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.
On the numbers, HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 27.6× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HDBFS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HDBFS overvalued? HDBFS P/E vs its sector
HDBFS's P/E of 27.6× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.55% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
HDBFS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.0y of HDBFS history (-17%/yr drift, 26%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDBFS 2027 | ₹420 | ₹588 | ₹815 | -18% |
| HDBFS 2028 | ₹300 | ₹480 | ₹763 | -33% |
| HDBFS 2029 | ₹222 | ₹396 | ₹697 | -45% |
| HDBFS 2030 | ₹167 | ₹323 | ₹625 | -55% |
| HDBFS 2031 | ₹126 | ₹264 | ₹557 | -63% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HDBFS goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HDBFS
- A healthy 14.7% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹697.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A steep 1314.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹222.
HDBFS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.0 years HDBFS compounded at -17%/year with annualized volatility of 26%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹420–₹815, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HDBFS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HDBFS price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HDBFS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HDBFS price target & forecast page.
HDBFS Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HDBFS scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HDBFS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HDBFS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.8% | 3.7× |
Compare every broker on the HDBFS MTF page.
HDBFS vs peers,sector comparison
About HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L: sector, index & market-cap context
HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹59,996 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the HDBFS Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HDBFS analysis, FAQs
Is HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) a good buy?
On the numbers, HDB FINANCIAL SERVICES L (HDBFS) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing premium at 27.6× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 22% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HDBFS overvalued or undervalued?
HDBFS trades at 27.6× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the HDBFS share price target for 2031?
HDBFS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹264, with an 80% range of ₹126–₹557 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HDBFS doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HDBFS reaching ₹1,435 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for HDBFS?
A healthy 14.7% return on equity.
What are the risks in HDBFS?
At 27.6× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 1314.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 22% chance of finishing above today's price.