Case study

HDBFS

Hdb Financial Services Limited

Mixed signals1y model +6.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

50Score

Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HDBFS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) trades at ₹666,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100.

On the numbers, Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing premium at 25.4× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HDBFS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹55,292 Cr
Current price
₹666
P/E ratio
25.4×
P/B ratio
1110.00×
Book value
₹1
Dividend yield
0.60%
ROCE
9.8%
ROE
14.7%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How HDBFS ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

We do not hold 3-year revenue growth or debt-to-equity ratio figures for HDBFS, as of 9 Aug 2026, so those are not ranked here.

Is HDBFS overvalued? HDBFS P/E vs peers

HDBFS trades at 25.4× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HDBFS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.1y of HDBFS history (-21%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HDBFS 2027₹514₹707₹973+6%
HDBFS 2028₹476₹751₹1,186+13%
HDBFS 2029₹453₹798₹1,408+20%
HDBFS 2030₹447₹848₹1,608+27%
HDBFS 2031₹435₹901₹1,866+35%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HDBFS goes up, or doubles?

59%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
70%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
25%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,331 within 5 years

The bull case for HDBFS

  • HDBFS's return on equity of 14.7% ranks in the 70th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,408.

The bear case & risks

  • HDBFS's P/E of 25.4x is lower than 53% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • A steep 1110.0× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹453.

HDBFS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.1 years HDBFS compounded at -21%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹514-₹973, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HDBFS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.1 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
6.2%
80% range₹514-₹973
P(price ↑)59%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
19.9%
80% range₹453-₹1,408
P(price ↑)67%
P(price 2×)12%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
35.4%
80% range₹435-₹1,866
P(price ↑)70%
P(price 2×)25%

HDBFS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HDBFS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HDBFS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HDBFS price target & forecast page.

HDBFS Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HDBFS scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

HDBFS MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HDBFS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox26.54%3.8×
Zerodha26.54%3.8×
Groww26.62%3.8×
Dhan26.54%3.8×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST26.53%3.8×
Paytm Money26.82%3.7×
Pocketful26.71%3.7×
Anand Rathi26.54%3.8×
Bajaj Broking27.00%3.7×
Share India26.60%3.8×

Compare every broker on the HDBFS MTF page.

About Hdb Financial Services Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹55,292 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HDBFS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hdb Financial Services Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HDBFS analysis, FAQs

Is Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hdb Financial Services Limited (HDBFS) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 50/100, weighing premium at 25.4× earnings, ROE of 14.7%, a 59% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HDBFS overvalued or undervalued?

HDBFS trades at 25.4× earnings, premium versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HDBFS share price target for 2031?

HDBFS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹901, with an 80% range of ₹435-₹1,866 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HDBFS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HDBFS reaching ₹1,331 (2×) within 5 years is 25%.

What is the bull case for HDBFS?

HDBFS's return on equity of 14.7% ranks in the 70th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. Relatively low volatility (25%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.

What are the risks in HDBFS?

HDBFS's P/E of 25.4x is lower than 53% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. A steep 1110.0× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.

More on HDBFS