HDFCAMC
HDFC AMC
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HDFCAMC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) trades at ₹2,690,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100.
On the numbers, HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing expensive at 40.4× earnings, ROE of 32.9%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HDFCAMC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HDFCAMC overvalued? HDFCAMC P/E vs its AMC
HDFCAMC's P/E of 40.4× sits above the AMC peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.01% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.
HDFCAMC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HDFCAMC history (16%/yr drift, 30%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFCAMC 2027 | ₹2,064 | ₹3,046 | ₹4,498 | +12% |
| HDFCAMC 2028 | ₹1,987 | ₹3,420 | ₹5,886 | +26% |
| HDFCAMC 2029 | ₹1,972 | ₹3,837 | ₹7,510 | +41% |
| HDFCAMC 2030 | ₹2,017 | ₹4,323 | ₹9,247 | +59% |
| HDFCAMC 2031 | ₹2,079 | ₹4,786 | ₹11,406 | +76% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HDFCAMC goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HDFCAMC
- High return on equity (32.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (42.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Pays a 2.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 65% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹3,046 (+12%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹7,510.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 40.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- A steep 12.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹1,972.
HDFCAMC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HDFCAMC compounded at 16%/year with annualized volatility of 30%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹2,064–₹4,498, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HDFCAMC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HDFCAMC price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HDFCAMC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HDFCAMC price target & forecast page.
HDFCAMC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HDFCAMC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HDFCAMC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HDFCAMC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 30.6% | 3.3× |
| Zerodha | 26.1% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 24.0% | 4.2× |
Compare every broker on the HDFCAMC MTF page.
HDFCAMC vs peers,AMC comparison
About HDFC AMC: sector, index & market-cap context
HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company in the AMC sector, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.15L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.
How the HDFCAMC Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HDFC AMC's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HDFCAMC analysis, FAQs
Is HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) a good buy?
On the numbers, HDFC AMC (HDFCAMC) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 64/100, weighing expensive at 40.4× earnings, ROE of 32.9%, a 65% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HDFCAMC overvalued or undervalued?
HDFCAMC trades at 40.4× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its AMC peers.
What is the HDFCAMC share price target for 2031?
HDFCAMC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹4,786, with an 80% range of ₹2,079–₹11,406 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HDFCAMC doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HDFCAMC reaching ₹5,438 (2×) within 5 years is 43%.
What is the bull case for HDFCAMC?
High return on equity (32.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (42.9%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital. Pays a 2.0% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
What are the risks in HDFCAMC?
A rich 40.4× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 12.5× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.