HDFCGOLD
HDFC Gold ETF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HDFCGOLD a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100.
On the numbers, HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HDFCGOLD share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.9y of HDFCGOLD history (36%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFCGOLD 2027 | ₹125 | ₹173 | ₹240 | +38% |
| HDFCGOLD 2028 | ₹151 | ₹240 | ₹381 | +92% |
| HDFCGOLD 2029 | ₹188 | ₹332 | ₹584 | +166% |
| HDFCGOLD 2030 | ₹236 | ₹463 | ₹888 | +270% |
| HDFCGOLD 2031 | ₹303 | ₹634 | ₹1,311 | +407% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HDFCGOLD goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HDFCGOLD
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹173 (+38%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹584.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹188.
HDFCGOLD volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.9 years HDFCGOLD compounded at 36%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹125–₹240, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HDFCGOLD price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HDFCGOLD price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HDFCGOLD hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HDFCGOLD price target & forecast page.
HDFCGOLD MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HDFCGOLD with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 29.1% | 3.4× |
Compare every broker on the HDFCGOLD MTF page.
HDFCGOLD vs peers,sector comparison
About HDFC Gold ETF: sector, index & market-cap context
HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD) is an NSE-listed company.
How the HDFCGOLD Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HDFC Gold ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HDFCGOLD analysis, FAQs
Is HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD) a good buy?
On the numbers, HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 58/100, weighing a 90% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HDFCGOLD overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for HDFCGOLD are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the HDFCGOLD share price target for 2031?
HDFCGOLD's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹634, with an 80% range of ₹303–₹1,311 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HDFCGOLD doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HDFCGOLD reaching ₹250 (2×) within 5 years is 95%.
What is the bull case for HDFCGOLD?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 90% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹173 (+38%).
What are the risks in HDFCGOLD?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.