HDFCSML250
HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF (HDFCSML250) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HDFCSML250 a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100.
On the numbers, HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF (HDFCSML250) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
How HDFCSML250 ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener
HDFCSML250 is not currently one of the 2,373 companies in our live screener universe, so no percentile comparison is available for it here.
HDFCSML250 share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 3.4y of HDFCSML250 history (20%/yr drift, 19%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDFCSML250 2027 | ₹162 | ₹207 | ₹265 | +12% |
| HDFCSML250 2028 | ₹165 | ₹233 | ₹327 | +26% |
| HDFCSML250 2029 | ₹171 | ₹261 | ₹397 | +41% |
| HDFCSML250 2030 | ₹179 | ₹292 | ₹477 | +58% |
| HDFCSML250 2031 | ₹188 | ₹328 | ₹571 | +77% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HDFCSML250 goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HDFCSML250
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹207 (+12%).
- Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹397.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹171.
HDFCSML250 volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 3.4 years HDFCSML250 compounded at 20%/year with annualized volatility of 19%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹162-₹265, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HDFCSML250 price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HDFCSML250 price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HDFCSML250 hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HDFCSML250 price target & forecast page.
HDFCSML250 MTF margin & leverage across 9 brokers
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HDFCSML250 with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 9 brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Zerodha | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Groww | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Dhan | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Kotak Neo | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Paytm Money | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Fyers | 20.00% | 5.0× |
| Anand RathiCHEAPEST | 17.11% | 5.8× |
| Share India | 20.00% | 5.0× |
Compare every broker on the HDFCSML250 MTF page.
About HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF: sector, index & market-cap context
HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF (HDFCSML250) is an NSE-listed company. See more stocks on our screener.
How the HDFCSML250 Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HDFCSML250 analysis, FAQs
Is HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF (HDFCSML250) a good buy?
On the numbers, HDFC Nifty Smallcap 250 ETF (HDFCSML250) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 61/100, weighing a 72% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HDFCSML250 overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation ratios for HDFCSML250 are tracked live on Downstox.
What is the HDFCSML250 share price target for 2031?
HDFCSML250's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹328, with an 80% range of ₹188-₹571 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HDFCSML250 doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HDFCSML250 reaching ₹370 (2×) within 5 years is 39%.
What is the bull case for HDFCSML250?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 72% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹207 (+12%). Relatively low volatility (19%/yr), a steadier ride than the typical mid/small-cap.
What are the risks in HDFCSML250?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.