Case study

HEG

HEG LTD

Tread carefully1y model -0.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

HEG LTD (HEG) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HEG a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

HEG LTD (HEG) trades at ₹538,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100.

On the numbers, HEG LTD (HEG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 30.7× earnings, ROE of 7.3%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HEG fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹10,377 Cr
Current price
₹538
P/E ratio
30.7×
P/B ratio
2.18×
Book value
₹247
Dividend yield
0.33%
ROCE
8.3%
ROE
7.3%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HEG overvalued? HEG P/E vs its sector

HEG's P/E of 30.7× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.33% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

HEG P/E
30.7×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
HEG div yield
0.33%
Peer median yield
1.65%

HEG share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HEG history (8%/yr drift, 44%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HEG 2027₹295₹527₹931-1%
HEG 2028₹229₹518₹1,175-3%
HEG 2029₹189₹512₹1,378-4%
HEG 2030₹160₹505₹1,604-5%
HEG 2031₹138₹499₹1,794-6%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HEG goes up, or doubles?

49%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
47%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
22%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹1,064 within 5 years

The bull case for HEG

  • HEG LTD is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,378.

The bear case & risks

  • At 30.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
  • Return on equity is a soft 7.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹189.

HEG volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HEG compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 44%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹295₹931, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HEG price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
0.8%
80% range₹295–₹931
P(price ↑)49%
P(price 2×)6%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
3.6%
80% range₹189–₹1,378
P(price ↑)48%
P(price 2×)17%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.2%
80% range₹138–₹1,794
P(price ↑)47%
P(price 2×)22%

HEG price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HEG simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HEG hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HEG price target & forecast page.

HEG Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HEG scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HEG MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HEG with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST35.4%2.8×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST35.4%2.8×
DhanCHEAPEST35.4%2.8×

Compare every broker on the HEG MTF page.

Which ace investors hold HEG?

Held by 1 tracked superstar investor (from public NSE/BSE disclosures):

HEG vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HEG (this stock)30.7×0.33%₹10,377 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About HEG LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

HEG LTD (HEG) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹10,377 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the HEG Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HEG LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HEG analysis, FAQs

Is HEG LTD (HEG) a good buy?

On the numbers, HEG LTD (HEG) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 39/100, weighing premium at 30.7× earnings, ROE of 7.3%, a 49% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HEG overvalued or undervalued?

HEG trades at 30.7× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the HEG share price target for 2031?

HEG's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹499, with an 80% range of ₹138₹1,794 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HEG doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HEG reaching ₹1,064 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.

What is the bull case for HEG?

HEG LTD is part of the nifty200 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in HEG?

At 30.7× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 7.3%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on HEG