Case study

HEXT

HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD

Worth a closer look1y model -33.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HEXT a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) trades at ₹499,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100.

On the numbers, HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.8× earnings, ROE of 24.9%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HEXT fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹30,471 Cr
Current price
₹499
P/E ratio
20.8×
P/B ratio
4.84×
Book value
₹103
Dividend yield
2.31%
ROCE
30.1%
ROE
24.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HEXT overvalued? HEXT P/E vs its sector

HEXT's P/E of 20.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.31% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

HEXT P/E
20.8×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
HEXT div yield
2.31%
Peer median yield
1.67%

HEXT share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.3y of HEXT history (-33%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HEXT 2027₹201₹334₹555-33%
HEXT 2028₹109₹223₹458-55%
HEXT 2029₹63₹150₹357-70%
HEXT 2030₹37₹101₹277-80%
HEXT 2031₹22₹67₹209-87%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HEXT goes up, or doubles?

15%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
1%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹999 within 5 years

The bull case for HEXT

  • A 20.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched.
  • High return on equity (24.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (30.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Pays a 2.3% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹357.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹63.

HEXT volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 1.3 years HEXT compounded at -33%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹201₹555, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HEXT price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 1.3 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
33.2%
80% range₹201–₹555
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
70.0%
80% range₹63–₹357
P(price ↑)4%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
86.7%
80% range₹22–₹209
P(price ↑)1%
P(price 2×)0%

HEXT price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HEXT simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HEXT hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HEXT price target & forecast page.

HEXT Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HEXT scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HEXT MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HEXT with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST31.9%3.1×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST31.9%3.1×
DhanCHEAPEST31.9%3.1×

Compare every broker on the HEXT MTF page.

HEXT vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HEXT (this stock)20.8×2.31%₹30,471 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹30,471 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the HEXT Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HEXT analysis, FAQs

Is HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) a good buy?

On the numbers, HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (HEXT) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 66/100, weighing fairly valued at 20.8× earnings, ROE of 24.9%, a 15% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HEXT overvalued or undervalued?

HEXT trades at 20.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the HEXT share price target for 2031?

HEXT's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹67, with an 80% range of ₹22₹209 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HEXT doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HEXT reaching ₹999 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for HEXT?

A 20.8× P/E sits in the fair-value band, neither cheap nor stretched. High return on equity (24.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (30.1%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in HEXT?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 15% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HEXT