Case study

HFCL

Hfcl Limited

High-risk on the numbers1y model +1.3%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

28Score

Hfcl Limited (HFCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HFCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hfcl Limited (HFCL) trades at ₹208,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.

On the numbers, Hfcl Limited (HFCL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 55.6× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HFCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹31,833 Cr
Current price
₹208
P/E ratio
55.6×
P/B ratio
6.50×
Book value
₹32
Dividend yield
0.05%
ROCE
10.9%
ROE
7.0%
Piotroski F-Score
6/8

How HFCL ranks against the 2,373 companies in our screener

Is HFCL overvalued? HFCL P/E vs peers

HFCL trades at 55.6× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HFCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of HFCL history (26%/yr drift, 48%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HFCL 2027₹115₹211₹386+1%
HFCL 2028₹89₹213₹512+3%
HFCL 2029₹75₹216₹626+4%
HFCL 2030₹65₹219₹736+5%
HFCL 2031₹57₹222₹861+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HFCL goes up, or doubles?

51%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
53%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
28%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹416 within 5 years

The bull case for HFCL

  • Hfcl Limited is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹626.

The bear case & risks

  • HFCL's P/E of 55.6x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • HFCL's return on equity of 7.0% ranks in the 36th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026.
  • High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹75.

HFCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years HFCL compounded at 26%/year with annualized volatility of 48%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹115-₹386, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HFCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.3%
80% range₹115-₹386
P(price ↑)51%
P(price 2×)8%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.0%
80% range₹75-₹626
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)22%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
6.8%
80% range₹57-₹861
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)28%

HFCL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HFCL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HFCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HFCL price target & forecast page.

HFCL Piotroski F-Score: 6/8, how financially strong is it?

6/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HFCL scores 6/8, mixed financial health.

HFCL MTF margin & leverage across 5 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HFCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 5 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Zerodha50.00%2.0×
Kotak NeoCHEAPEST38.76%2.6×
Pocketful50.00%2.0×
Anand Rathi100.00%1.0×
Share India38.78%2.6×

Compare every broker on the HFCL MTF page.

About Hfcl Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hfcl Limited (HFCL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹31,833 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HFCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hfcl Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HFCL analysis, FAQs

Is Hfcl Limited (HFCL) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hfcl Limited (HFCL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing expensive at 55.6× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 51% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HFCL overvalued or undervalued?

HFCL trades at 55.6× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HFCL share price target for 2031?

HFCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹222, with an 80% range of ₹57-₹861 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HFCL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HFCL reaching ₹416 (2×) within 5 years is 28%.

What is the bull case for HFCL?

Hfcl Limited is part of the nifty100 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.

What are the risks in HFCL?

HFCL's P/E of 55.6x is lower than 23% of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. HFCL's return on equity of 7.0% ranks in the 36th percentile of the 2,373 NSE companies in our screener, as of 9 Aug 2026. High historical volatility (48%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.

More on HFCL