HFCL
HFCL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HFCL (HFCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HFCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HFCL (HFCL) trades at ₹209,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100.
On the numbers, HFCL (HFCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 103.0× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HFCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HFCL overvalued? HFCL P/E vs its sector
HFCL's P/E of 103.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.05% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
HFCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HFCL history (30%/yr drift, 47%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFCL 2027 | ₹137 | ₹254 | ₹458 | +21% |
| HFCL 2028 | ₹127 | ₹304 | ₹703 | +45% |
| HFCL 2029 | ₹126 | ₹365 | ₹1,021 | +74% |
| HFCL 2030 | ₹127 | ₹441 | ₹1,435 | +111% |
| HFCL 2031 | ₹136 | ₹532 | ₹1,986 | +154% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HFCL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HFCL
- A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹254 (+21%).
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,021.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 103.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 7.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹126.
HFCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HFCL compounded at 30%/year with annualized volatility of 47%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹137–₹458, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HFCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HFCL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HFCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HFCL price target & forecast page.
HFCL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HFCL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HFCL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HFCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
Compare every broker on the HFCL MTF page.
HFCL vs peers,sector comparison
About HFCL: sector, index & market-cap context
HFCL (HFCL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹32,054 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.
How the HFCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HFCL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HFCL analysis, FAQs
Is HFCL (HFCL) a good buy?
On the numbers, HFCL (HFCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 36/100, weighing expensive at 103.0× earnings, ROE of 7.0%, a 66% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HFCL overvalued or undervalued?
HFCL trades at 103.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the HFCL share price target for 2031?
HFCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹532, with an 80% range of ₹136–₹1,986 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HFCL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HFCL reaching ₹419 (2×) within 5 years is 59%.
What is the bull case for HFCL?
A 10,000-path probability model puts a 66% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹254 (+21%).
What are the risks in HFCL?
A rich 103.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 7.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. High historical volatility (47%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.