Case study

HGS

Hinduja Global Solutions

High-risk on the numbers1y model -34.5%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HGS a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) trades at ₹433,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 24/100.

On the numbers, Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 24/100, weighing expensive at 1788.0× earnings, ROE of -1.2%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HGS fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹2,019 Cr
Current price
₹433
P/E ratio
1788.0×
P/B ratio
0.24×
Book value
₹1,788
ROCE
1.4%
ROE
-1.2%
Piotroski F-Score
2/9

Is HGS overvalued? HGS P/E vs its sector

HGS's P/E of 1788.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

HGS P/E
1788.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

HGS share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HGS history (-36%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HGS 2027₹178₹278₹431-35%
HGS 2028₹96₹183₹342-57%
HGS 2029₹56₹121₹254-72%
HGS 2030₹32₹79₹186-81%
HGS 2031₹19₹51₹135-88%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HGS goes up, or doubles?

11%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
0%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
0%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹850 within 5 years

The bull case for HGS

  • Low price-to-book of 0.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹254.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 1788.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹56.

HGS volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HGS compounded at -36%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹178₹431, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HGS price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
34.5%
80% range₹178–₹431
P(price ↑)11%
P(price 2×)0%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
71.5%
80% range₹56–₹254
P(price ↑)2%
P(price 2×)0%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
87.9%
80% range₹19–₹135
P(price ↑)0%
P(price 2×)0%

HGS price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HGS simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HGS hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HGS price target & forecast page.

HGS Piotroski F-Score: 2/9, how financially strong is it?

2/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HGS scores 2/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

HGS MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HGS with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST35.0%2.9×
Zerodha50.0%2.0×
Dhan40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the HGS MTF page.

HGS vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HGS (this stock)1788.0×₹2,019 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Hinduja Global Solutions: sector, index & market-cap context

Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,019 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the HGS Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hinduja Global Solutions's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HGS analysis, FAQs

Is Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hinduja Global Solutions (HGS) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 24/100, weighing expensive at 1788.0× earnings, ROE of -1.2%, a 11% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HGS overvalued or undervalued?

HGS trades at 1788.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the HGS share price target for 2031?

HGS's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹51, with an 80% range of ₹19₹135 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HGS doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HGS reaching ₹850 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.

What is the bull case for HGS?

Low price-to-book of 0.24×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.

What are the risks in HGS?

A rich 1788.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 11% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HGS