Case study

HINDPETRO

Hindustan Petroleum Corp

Screens attractive1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HINDPETRO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) trades at ₹393,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100.

On the numbers, Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.6× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HINDPETRO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹83,687 Cr
Current price
₹393
P/E ratio
4.6×
P/B ratio
1.28×
Book value
₹308
Dividend yield
2.67%
ROCE
22.2%
ROE
30.9%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HINDPETRO overvalued? HINDPETRO P/E vs its sector

HINDPETRO's P/E of 4.6× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.67% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

HINDPETRO P/E
4.6×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
HINDPETRO div yield
2.67%
Peer median yield
1.67%

HINDPETRO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HINDPETRO history (8%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HINDPETRO 2027₹257₹398₹619+1%
HINDPETRO 2028₹216₹404₹752+3%
HINDPETRO 2029₹190₹410₹882+5%
HINDPETRO 2030₹170₹416₹1,031+6%
HINDPETRO 2031₹160₹427₹1,170+9%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HINDPETRO goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
22%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹784 within 5 years

The bull case for HINDPETRO

  • Trades at just 4.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • High return on equity (30.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Strong ROCE (22.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Pays a 2.7% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹882.

The bear case & risks

  • No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹190.

HINDPETRO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HINDPETRO compounded at 8%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹257₹619, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HINDPETRO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹257–₹619
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.5%
80% range₹190–₹882
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
8.8%
80% range₹160–₹1,170
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)22%

HINDPETRO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HINDPETRO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HINDPETRO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HINDPETRO price target & forecast page.

HINDPETRO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HINDPETRO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HINDPETRO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HINDPETRO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox32.6%3.1×
Zerodha27.8%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.6%3.9×

Compare every broker on the HINDPETRO MTF page.

HINDPETRO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HINDPETRO (this stock)4.6×2.67%₹83,687 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About Hindustan Petroleum Corp: sector, index & market-cap context

Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹83,687 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the HINDPETRO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindustan Petroleum Corp's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HINDPETRO analysis, FAQs

Is Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HINDPETRO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 80/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.6× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HINDPETRO overvalued or undervalued?

HINDPETRO trades at 4.6× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the HINDPETRO share price target for 2031?

HINDPETRO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹427, with an 80% range of ₹160₹1,170 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HINDPETRO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HINDPETRO reaching ₹784 (2×) within 5 years is 22%.

What is the bull case for HINDPETRO?

Trades at just 4.6× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. High return on equity (30.9%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.

What are the risks in HINDPETRO?

No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.

More on HINDPETRO