Case study

HINDPETRO

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited

Worth a closer look1y model +1.4%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

56Score

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HINDPETRO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) trades at ₹393,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100.

On the numbers, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing expensive at 50.0× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027-2031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HINDPETRO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹83,634 Cr
Current price
₹393
P/E ratio
50.0×
P/B ratio
1.28×
Book value
₹308
Dividend yield
6.17%
ROCE
22.2%
ROE
30.9%
Piotroski F-Score
5/8

How HINDPETRO ranks against the 2,371 companies in our screener

We do not hold a 3-year revenue growth figure for HINDPETRO, as of 8 Aug 2026, so it is not ranked here.

Is HINDPETRO overvalued? HINDPETRO P/E vs peers

HINDPETRO trades at 50.0× earnings. We don't have a verified sector peer group for this stock yet, so no sector peer median or peer comparison table is shown here. Showing one anyway would compare it against an arbitrary set of large-cap names, not real sector peers.

HINDPETRO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 9.8y of HINDPETRO history (7%/yr drift, 35%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HINDPETRO 2027₹256₹399₹620+1%
HINDPETRO 2028₹217₹404₹754+3%
HINDPETRO 2029₹190₹410₹884+4%
HINDPETRO 2030₹170₹416₹1,017+6%
HINDPETRO 2031₹155₹422₹1,146+7%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10-P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HINDPETRO goes up, or doubles?

52%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
54%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
21%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹786 within 5 years

The bull case for HINDPETRO

  • Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • HINDPETRO's return on equity of 30.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • HINDPETRO's return on capital employed of 22.2% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • HINDPETRO's dividend yield of 6.2% ranks in the top 1% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹884.

The bear case & risks

  • HINDPETRO's P/E of 50.0x is lower than 27% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹190.

HINDPETRO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 9.8 years HINDPETRO compounded at 7%/year with annualized volatility of 35%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹256-₹620, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HINDPETRO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 9.8 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
1.4%
80% range₹256-₹620
P(price ↑)52%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
4.3%
80% range₹190-₹884
P(price ↑)53%
P(price 2×)14%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
7.3%
80% range₹155-₹1,146
P(price ↑)54%
P(price 2×)21%

HINDPETRO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HINDPETRO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10-P90 (80%)P25-P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HINDPETRO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HINDPETRO price target & forecast page.

HINDPETRO Piotroski F-Score: 5/8, how financially strong is it?

5/8

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. Downstox scores the eight checks it can verify from published filings, so 8 is full marks. HINDPETRO scores 5/8, mixed financial health.

HINDPETRO MTF margin & leverage across 10 brokers

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HINDPETRO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across 10 brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
Upstox28.69%3.5×
Zerodha27.40%3.6×
Groww27.51%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST25.15%4.0×
Kotak Neo25.19%4.0×
Paytm Money25.72%3.9×
Pocketful32.49%3.1×
Anand Rathi32.15%3.1×
Bajaj Broking26.00%3.8×
Share India32.30%3.1×

Compare every broker on the HINDPETRO MTF page.

About Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited: sector, index & market-cap context

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index, with a market capitalisation of ₹83,634 Cr. See more stocks on our screener.

How the HINDPETRO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HINDPETRO analysis, FAQs

Is Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) a good buy?

On the numbers, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 56/100, weighing expensive at 50.0× earnings, ROE of 30.9%, a 52% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HINDPETRO overvalued or undervalued?

HINDPETRO trades at 50.0× earnings, expensive versus the ~22× long-run Nifty average.

What is the HINDPETRO share price target for 2031?

HINDPETRO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹422, with an 80% range of ₹155-₹1,146 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HINDPETRO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HINDPETRO reaching ₹786 (2×) within 5 years is 21%.

What is the bull case for HINDPETRO?

Low price-to-book of 1.28×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. HINDPETRO's return on equity of 30.9% ranks in the 94th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026. HINDPETRO's return on capital employed of 22.2% ranks in the 85th percentile of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

What are the risks in HINDPETRO?

HINDPETRO's P/E of 50.0x is lower than 27% of the 2,371 NSE companies in our screener, as of 8 Aug 2026.

More on HINDPETRO