HMVL
HMVL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HMVL (HMVL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HMVL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HMVL (HMVL) trades at ₹87,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, HMVL (HMVL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.1× earnings, ROE of 9.9%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HMVL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HMVL overvalued? HMVL P/E vs its sector
HMVL's P/E of 4.1× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers.
HMVL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HMVL history (-9%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMVL 2027 | ₹44 | ₹73 | ₹120 | -15% |
| HMVL 2028 | ₹31 | ₹61 | ₹124 | -29% |
| HMVL 2029 | ₹22 | ₹52 | ₹122 | -39% |
| HMVL 2030 | ₹16 | ₹44 | ₹118 | -49% |
| HMVL 2031 | ₹12 | ₹37 | ₹114 | -57% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HMVL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HMVL
- Trades at just 4.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.40×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹122.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 9.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹22.
HMVL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HMVL compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹44–₹120, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HMVL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HMVL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HMVL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HMVL price target & forecast page.
HMVL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HMVL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
HMVL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HMVL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 50.0% | 2.0× |
| Dhan | 60.0% | 1.7× |
Compare every broker on the HMVL MTF page.
HMVL vs peers,sector comparison
About HMVL: sector, index & market-cap context
HMVL (HMVL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹643 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the HMVL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HMVL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HMVL analysis, FAQs
Is HMVL (HMVL) a good buy?
On the numbers, HMVL (HMVL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 4.1× earnings, ROE of 9.9%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HMVL overvalued or undervalued?
HMVL trades at 4.1× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the HMVL share price target for 2031?
HMVL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹37, with an 80% range of ₹12–₹114 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HMVL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HMVL reaching ₹172 (2×) within 5 years is 4%.
What is the bull case for HMVL?
Trades at just 4.1× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.40×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in HMVL?
Return on equity is a soft 9.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.