Case study

HONASA

HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED

Tread carefully1y model -13.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HONASA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) trades at ₹416,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100.

On the numbers, HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 66.5× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HONASA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹13,550 Cr
Current price
₹416
P/E ratio
66.5×
P/B ratio
9.59×
Book value
₹43
ROCE
19.2%
ROE
15.7%
Piotroski F-Score
3/9

Is HONASA overvalued? HONASA P/E vs its sector

HONASA's P/E of 66.5× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers.

HONASA P/E
66.5×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
Peer median yield
1.66%

HONASA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HONASA history (-4%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HONASA 2027₹210₹363₹636-13%
HONASA 2028₹144₹317₹686-24%
HONASA 2029₹106₹278₹724-33%
HONASA 2030₹80₹243₹730-42%
HONASA 2031₹61₹212₹735-49%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HONASA goes up, or doubles?

37%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
24%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
8%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹835 within 5 years

The bull case for HONASA

  • A healthy 15.7% return on equity.
  • Strong ROCE (19.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹724.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 66.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 9.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 37% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹106.

HONASA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HONASA compounded at -4%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹210₹636, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HONASA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
13.0%
80% range₹210–₹636
P(price ↑)37%
P(price 2×)3%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
33.3%
80% range₹106–₹724
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)7%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
49.3%
80% range₹61–₹735
P(price ↑)24%
P(price 2×)8%

HONASA price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HONASA simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HONASA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HONASA price target & forecast page.

HONASA Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?

3/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HONASA scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.

HONASA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HONASA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST32.8%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST32.8%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST32.8%3.0×

Compare every broker on the HONASA MTF page.

HONASA vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HONASA (this stock)66.5×₹13,550 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED: sector, index & market-cap context

HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹13,550 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.

How the HONASA Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HONASA analysis, FAQs

Is HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) a good buy?

On the numbers, HONASA CONSUMER LIMITED (HONASA) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 66.5× earnings, ROE of 15.7%, a 37% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HONASA overvalued or undervalued?

HONASA trades at 66.5× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the HONASA share price target for 2031?

HONASA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹212, with an 80% range of ₹61₹735 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HONASA doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HONASA reaching ₹835 (2×) within 5 years is 8%.

What is the bull case for HONASA?

A healthy 15.7% return on equity. Strong ROCE (19.2%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.

What are the risks in HONASA?

A rich 66.5× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 9.6× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.

More on HONASA