HPAL
HPAL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HPAL (HPAL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HPAL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HPAL (HPAL) trades at ₹37,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100.
On the numbers, HPAL (HPAL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 4.1%, a 7% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HPAL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HPAL overvalued? HPAL P/E vs its sector
HPAL's P/E of 44.8× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.08% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
HPAL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HPAL history (-51%/yr drift, 41%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPAL 2027 | ₹12 | ₹20 | ₹34 | -45% |
| HPAL 2028 | ₹5 | ₹11 | ₹23 | -69% |
| HPAL 2029 | ₹2 | ₹6 | ₹15 | -83% |
| HPAL 2030 | ₹1 | ₹3 | ₹10 | -91% |
| HPAL 2031 | ₹1 | ₹2 | ₹6 | -95% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HPAL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HPAL
- HPAL is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹15.
The bear case & risks
- A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
- Return on equity is a soft 4.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 7% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2.
HPAL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HPAL compounded at -51%/year with annualized volatility of 41%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹12–₹34, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HPAL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HPAL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HPAL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HPAL price target & forecast page.
HPAL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HPAL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HPAL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HPAL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| DhanCHEAPEST | 60.0% | 1.7× |
Compare every broker on the HPAL MTF page.
HPAL vs peers,sector comparison
About HPAL: sector, index & market-cap context
HPAL (HPAL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹340 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the HPAL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HPAL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HPAL analysis, FAQs
Is HPAL (HPAL) a good buy?
On the numbers, HPAL (HPAL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 27/100, weighing expensive at 44.8× earnings, ROE of 4.1%, a 7% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HPAL overvalued or undervalued?
HPAL trades at 44.8× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the HPAL share price target for 2031?
HPAL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹6 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HPAL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HPAL reaching ₹73 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for HPAL?
HPAL is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in HPAL?
A rich 44.8× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 4.1%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 7% chance of finishing above today's price.