HPL
HPL Electric & Power
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
HPL Electric & Power (HPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is HPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
HPL Electric & Power (HPL) trades at ₹402,on the numbers it high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100.
On the numbers, HPL Electric & Power (HPL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 9.9%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
HPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is HPL overvalued? HPL P/E vs its sector
HPL's P/E of 27.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.25% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
HPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HPL history (-9%/yr drift, 53%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPL 2027 | ₹155 | ₹307 | ₹609 | -20% |
| HPL 2028 | ₹92 | ₹243 | ₹633 | -37% |
| HPL 2029 | ₹59 | ₹191 | ₹608 | -50% |
| HPL 2030 | ₹39 | ₹153 | ₹587 | -60% |
| HPL 2031 | ₹27 | ₹122 | ₹550 | -68% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability HPL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for HPL
- HPL Electric & Power is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹608.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- Return on equity is a soft 9.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.
- High historical volatility (53%/yr) means a wide, bumpy range of outcomes, size positions accordingly.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹59.
HPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years HPL compounded at -9%/year with annualized volatility of 53%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹155–₹609, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
HPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
HPL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds HPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the HPL price target & forecast page.
HPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
HPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 39.4% | 2.5× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 39.4% | 2.5× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 39.4% | 2.5× |
Compare every broker on the HPL MTF page.
HPL vs peers,sector comparison
About HPL Electric & Power: sector, index & market-cap context
HPL Electric & Power (HPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹2,586 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the HPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HPL Electric & Power's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
HPL analysis, FAQs
Is HPL Electric & Power (HPL) a good buy?
On the numbers, HPL Electric & Power (HPL) high-risk on the numbers, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 28/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 9.9%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is HPL overvalued or undervalued?
HPL trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the HPL share price target for 2031?
HPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹122, with an 80% range of ₹27–₹550 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability HPL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of HPL reaching ₹767 (2×) within 5 years is 6%.
What is the bull case for HPL?
HPL Electric & Power is part of the nifty500 universe with live, tracked fundamentals on Downstox.
What are the risks in HPL?
At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. Return on equity is a soft 9.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.