Case study

HUDCO

HUDCO

Screens attractive1y model -20.0%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

HUDCO (HUDCO) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is HUDCO a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

HUDCO (HUDCO) trades at ₹211,on the numbers it screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100.

On the numbers, HUDCO (HUDCO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 29% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

HUDCO fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹42,290 Cr
Current price
₹211
P/E ratio
10.5×
P/B ratio
1.92×
Book value
₹110
Dividend yield
2.15%
ROCE
8.4%
ROE
20.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is HUDCO overvalued? HUDCO P/E vs its sector

HUDCO's P/E of 10.5× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers, while its 2.15% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

HUDCO P/E
10.5×
Peer median P/E
14.7×
HUDCO div yield
2.15%
Peer median yield
1.67%

HUDCO share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of HUDCO history (-14%/yr drift, 39%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
HUDCO 2027₹101₹167₹278-20%
HUDCO 2028₹65₹134₹273-36%
HUDCO 2029₹44₹108₹263-48%
HUDCO 2030₹31₹86₹238-59%
HUDCO 2031₹22₹70₹213-67%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability HUDCO goes up, or doubles?

29%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
10%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹417 within 5 years

The bull case for HUDCO

  • Trades at just 10.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
  • High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
  • Pays a 2.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹263.

The bear case & risks

  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 29% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹44.

HUDCO volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years HUDCO compounded at -14%/year with annualized volatility of 39%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹101₹278, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

HUDCO price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
20.0%
80% range₹101–₹278
P(price ↑)29%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
48.4%
80% range₹44–₹263
P(price ↑)17%
P(price 2×)3%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
66.7%
80% range₹22–₹213
P(price ↑)10%
P(price 2×)2%

HUDCO price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
HUDCO simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds HUDCO hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the HUDCO price target & forecast page.

HUDCO Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. HUDCO scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

HUDCO MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy HUDCO with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST33.5%3.0×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST33.5%3.0×
DhanCHEAPEST33.5%3.0×

Compare every broker on the HUDCO MTF page.

HUDCO vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
HUDCO (this stock)10.5×2.15%₹42,290 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About HUDCO: sector, index & market-cap context

HUDCO (HUDCO) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 100 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹42,290 Cr. See more Nifty 100 stocks.

How the HUDCO Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of HUDCO's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

HUDCO analysis, FAQs

Is HUDCO (HUDCO) a good buy?

On the numbers, HUDCO (HUDCO) screens attractive, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 70/100, weighing inexpensive at 10.5× earnings, ROE of 20.2%, a 29% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is HUDCO overvalued or undervalued?

HUDCO trades at 10.5× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.

What is the HUDCO share price target for 2031?

HUDCO's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹70, with an 80% range of ₹22₹213 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability HUDCO doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of HUDCO reaching ₹417 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for HUDCO?

Trades at just 10.5× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. High return on equity (20.2%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Pays a 2.1% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.

What are the risks in HUDCO?

The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 29% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on HUDCO