Case study

ICICIAMC

ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD

Tread carefully1y model +67.2%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is ICICIAMC a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) trades at ₹3,417,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100.

On the numbers, ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 57.2× earnings, ROE of 1.0%, a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

ICICIAMC fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1.68L Cr
Current price
₹3,417
P/E ratio
57.2×
P/B ratio
4271.25×
Book value
₹1
Dividend yield
0.80%
ROCE
1.0%
ROE
1.0%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is ICICIAMC overvalued? ICICIAMC P/E vs its sector

ICICIAMC's P/E of 57.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.80% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.

ICICIAMC P/E
57.2×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
ICICIAMC div yield
0.80%
Peer median yield
1.65%

ICICIAMC share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 0.5y of ICICIAMC history (58%/yr drift, 37%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
ICICIAMC 2027₹3,556₹5,734₹9,132+67%
ICICIAMC 2028₹4,926₹9,589₹18,616+180%
ICICIAMC 2029₹7,023₹16,084₹36,613+369%
ICICIAMC 2030₹10,395₹27,025₹68,426+688%
ICICIAMC 2031₹15,537₹44,788₹1,27,297+1206%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability ICICIAMC goes up, or doubles?

91%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
100%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
99%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹6,858 within 5 years

The bull case for ICICIAMC

  • A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,734 (+67%).
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹36,613.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 57.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • A steep 4271.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
  • Return on equity is a soft 1.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹7,023.

ICICIAMC volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 0.5 years ICICIAMC compounded at 58%/year with annualized volatility of 37%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,556₹9,132, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

ICICIAMC price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 0.5 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
67.2%
80% range₹3,556–₹9,132
P(price ↑)91%
P(price 2×)31%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
369.1%
80% range₹7,023–₹36,613
P(price ↑)99%
P(price 2×)91%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
1206.1%
80% range₹15,537–₹1,27,297
P(price ↑)100%
P(price 2×)99%

ICICIAMC price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
ICICIAMC simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds ICICIAMC hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the ICICIAMC price target & forecast page.

ICICIAMC Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ICICIAMC scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

ICICIAMC MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ICICIAMC with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
UpstoxCHEAPEST27.4%3.6×
ZerodhaCHEAPEST27.4%3.6×
DhanCHEAPEST27.4%3.6×

Compare every broker on the ICICIAMC MTF page.

ICICIAMC vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
ICICIAMC (this stock)57.2×0.80%₹1.68L Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD: sector, index & market-cap context

ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) is a large-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 50 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1.68L Cr. See more Nifty 50 stocks.

How the ICICIAMC Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

ICICIAMC analysis, FAQs

Is ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) a good buy?

On the numbers, ICICI PRUDENTIAL AMC LTD (ICICIAMC) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 41/100, weighing expensive at 57.2× earnings, ROE of 1.0%, a 91% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is ICICIAMC overvalued or undervalued?

ICICIAMC trades at 57.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the ICICIAMC share price target for 2031?

ICICIAMC's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹44,788, with an 80% range of ₹15,537₹1,27,297 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability ICICIAMC doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of ICICIAMC reaching ₹6,858 (2×) within 5 years is 99%.

What is the bull case for ICICIAMC?

A 10,000-path probability model puts a 91% chance the price is higher in a year, with a median target of ₹5,734 (+67%).

What are the risks in ICICIAMC?

A rich 57.2× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. A steep 4271.3× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. Return on equity is a soft 1.0%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.

More on ICICIAMC