ICRA
ICRA
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
ICRA (ICRA) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is ICRA a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
ICRA (ICRA) trades at ₹5,244,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100.
On the numbers, ICRA (ICRA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 16.7%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
ICRA fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is ICRA overvalued? ICRA P/E vs its sector
ICRA's P/E of 27.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 1.33% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
ICRA share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of ICRA history (-7%/yr drift, 25%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICRA 2027 | ₹3,463 | ₹4,819 | ₹6,682 | -9% |
| ICRA 2028 | ₹2,731 | ₹4,355 | ₹6,884 | -18% |
| ICRA 2029 | ₹2,245 | ₹3,950 | ₹6,936 | -26% |
| ICRA 2030 | ₹1,858 | ₹3,558 | ₹6,898 | -33% |
| ICRA 2031 | ₹1,543 | ₹3,219 | ₹6,722 | -40% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability ICRA goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for ICRA
- A healthy 16.7% return on equity.
- Strong ROCE (23.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹6,936.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹2,245.
ICRA volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years ICRA compounded at -7%/year with annualized volatility of 25%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹3,463–₹6,682, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
ICRA price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
ICRA price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds ICRA hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the ICRA price target & forecast page.
ICRA Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. ICRA scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
ICRA MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy ICRA with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| Upstox | 35.0% | 2.9× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 26.6% | 3.8× |
Compare every broker on the ICRA MTF page.
ICRA vs peers,sector comparison
About ICRA: sector, index & market-cap context
ICRA (ICRA) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹5,066 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the ICRA Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of ICRA's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
ICRA analysis, FAQs
Is ICRA (ICRA) a good buy?
On the numbers, ICRA (ICRA) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 45/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 16.7%, a 34% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is ICRA overvalued or undervalued?
ICRA trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the ICRA share price target for 2031?
ICRA's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹3,219, with an 80% range of ₹1,543–₹6,722 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability ICRA doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of ICRA reaching ₹10,644 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.
What is the bull case for ICRA?
A healthy 16.7% return on equity. Strong ROCE (23.0%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in ICRA?
At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 34% chance of finishing above today's price.