IGCL
IGCL
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
IGCL (IGCL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IGCL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
IGCL (IGCL) trades at ₹62,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100.
On the numbers, IGCL (IGCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.8× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 4% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IGCL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IGCL overvalued? IGCL P/E vs its sector
IGCL's P/E of 9.8× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens cheaper than peers.
IGCL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 0.9y of IGCL history (-62%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGCL 2027 | ₹17 | ₹30 | ₹51 | -51% |
| IGCL 2028 | ₹7 | ₹15 | ₹31 | -76% |
| IGCL 2029 | ₹3 | ₹7 | ₹18 | -88% |
| IGCL 2030 | ₹1 | ₹3 | ₹10 | -94% |
| IGCL 2031 | ₹1 | ₹2 | ₹6 | -97% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IGCL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IGCL
- Trades at just 9.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- Low price-to-book of 0.85×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹18.
The bear case & risks
- Return on equity is a soft 10.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
- A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 4% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹3.
IGCL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 0.9 years IGCL compounded at -62%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹17–₹51, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IGCL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IGCL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IGCL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IGCL price target & forecast page.
IGCL Piotroski F-Score: 3/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IGCL scores 3/9,weak on the financial-strength checks.
IGCL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IGCL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| DhanCHEAPEST | 60.0% | 1.7× |
Compare every broker on the IGCL MTF page.
IGCL vs peers,sector comparison
About IGCL: sector, index & market-cap context
IGCL (IGCL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹389 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.
How the IGCL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IGCL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IGCL analysis, FAQs
Is IGCL (IGCL) a good buy?
On the numbers, IGCL (IGCL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 43/100, weighing inexpensive at 9.8× earnings, ROE of 10.9%, a 4% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IGCL overvalued or undervalued?
IGCL trades at 9.8× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the IGCL share price target for 2031?
IGCL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹2, with an 80% range of ₹1–₹6 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IGCL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IGCL reaching ₹123 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for IGCL?
Trades at just 9.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. Low price-to-book of 0.85×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
What are the risks in IGCL?
Return on equity is a soft 10.9%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. A low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weaker financial health this cycle, worth understanding why before committing. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 4% chance of finishing above today's price.