IGIL
INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IGIL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) trades at ₹359,on the numbers it mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100.
On the numbers, INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 43.0%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IGIL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IGIL overvalued? IGIL P/E vs its sector
IGIL's P/E of 27.2× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 0.70% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
IGIL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 1.5y of IGIL history (-31%/yr drift, 43%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGIL 2027 | ₹137 | ₹239 | ₹417 | -33% |
| IGIL 2028 | ₹73 | ₹161 | ₹353 | -55% |
| IGIL 2029 | ₹41 | ₹107 | ₹283 | -70% |
| IGIL 2030 | ₹23 | ₹72 | ₹218 | -80% |
| IGIL 2031 | ₹14 | ₹48 | ₹168 | -86% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IGIL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IGIL
- High return on equity (43.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise.
- Strong ROCE (53.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹283.
The bear case & risks
- At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished.
- A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books.
- The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹41.
IGIL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 1.5 years IGIL compounded at -31%/year with annualized volatility of 43%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹137–₹417, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IGIL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IGIL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IGIL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IGIL price target & forecast page.
IGIL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IGIL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
IGIL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IGIL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 33.0% | 3.0× |
Compare every broker on the IGIL MTF page.
IGIL vs peers,sector comparison
About INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD: sector, index & market-cap context
INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹15,502 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the IGIL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IGIL analysis, FAQs
Is INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) a good buy?
On the numbers, INTL GEMOLOGICAL INST LTD (IGIL) mixed signals, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 52/100, weighing premium at 27.2× earnings, ROE of 43.0%, a 17% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IGIL overvalued or undervalued?
IGIL trades at 27.2× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.
What is the IGIL share price target for 2031?
IGIL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹48, with an 80% range of ₹14–₹168 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IGIL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IGIL reaching ₹712 (2×) within 5 years is 0%.
What is the bull case for IGIL?
High return on equity (43.0%), the business compounds shareholder capital efficiently, the hallmark of a quality franchise. Strong ROCE (53.6%) shows the core business earns well above its cost of capital.
What are the risks in IGIL?
At 27.2× earnings the stock carries a premium to the market, strong growth is already in the price, so any miss tends to be punished. A steep 10.4× price-to-book means most of the value is intangible/expectations, not assets on the books. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 17% chance of finishing above today's price.