Case study

IGPL

IGPL

Tread carefully1y model -20.8%

Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.

0Score

IGPL (IGPL) Stock Analysis & Case Study

Is IGPL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.

IGPL (IGPL) trades at ₹453,on the numbers it tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100.

On the numbers, IGPL (IGPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 629.0× earnings, ROE of 0.2%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 20272031.

Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

IGPL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield

Market cap
₹1,396 Cr
Current price
₹453
P/E ratio
629.0×
P/B ratio
1.05×
Book value
₹433
Dividend yield
2.21%
ROCE
3.1%
ROE
0.2%
Piotroski F-Score
4/9

Is IGPL overvalued? IGPL P/E vs its sector

IGPL's P/E of 629.0× sits above the sector peer median of 15.9×, so on earnings it screens richer than peers, while its 2.21% dividend yield is above the peer median of 1.67%.

IGPL P/E
629.0×
Peer median P/E
15.9×
IGPL div yield
2.21%
Peer median yield
1.67%

IGPL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view

Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IGPL history (-16%/yr drift, 40%/yr volatility).

YearLow (P10)Median target (P50)High (P90)Upside vs today
IGPL 2027₹216₹354₹585-21%
IGPL 2028₹137₹284₹574-37%
IGPL 2029₹92₹224₹527-50%
IGPL 2030₹64₹178₹479-60%
IGPL 2031₹46₹141₹434-69%

Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.

What is the probability IGPL goes up, or doubles?

27%
Higher in 1 year
Modelled chance the price is above today in 12 months
9%
Higher in 5 years
Modelled chance the price is above today in 5 years
2%
Doubles in 5 years
Modelled chance of reaching ₹894 within 5 years

The bull case for IGPL

  • Low price-to-book of 1.05×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets.
  • Pays a 2.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.
  • Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹527.

The bear case & risks

  • A rich 629.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows.
  • Return on equity is a soft 0.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers.
  • The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.
  • Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹92.

IGPL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?

Over the last 2.0 years IGPL compounded at -16%/year with annualized volatility of 40%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹216₹585, the honest backbone behind any single price target.

IGPL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan

Spot Price · Today
₹0
Based on 2.0 years of daily NSE data ·0.0% annualised volatility
5-yr median forecast
₹0
P(price ↑ in 5y)
0%
1-Year Forecast
2027
₹0
Median (P50)
20.8%
80% range₹216–₹585
P(price ↑)27%
P(price 2×)1%
3-Year Forecast
2029
₹0
Median (P50)
49.8%
80% range₹92–₹527
P(price ↑)15%
P(price 2×)2%
5-Year Forecast
2031
₹0
Median (P50)
68.5%
80% range₹46–₹434
P(price ↑)9%
P(price 2×)2%

IGPL price probability fan

Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.

Probability Fan
IGPL simulated paths · 60 months · 10,000 trials
P10–P90 (80%)P25–P75 (50%)Median (P50)

Probability of key outcomes

What are the odds IGPL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?

0%
P(↑ 1Y)
Above today's price in 1 year
0%
P(↑ 5Y)
Above today's price in 5 years
0%
P(2×)
Doubles within 5 years
0%
P(↓)
Falls below today in 5 years

Full multi-horizon detail on the IGPL price target & forecast page.

IGPL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?

4/9

The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IGPL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.

IGPL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan

Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IGPL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):

BrokerMargin requiredApprox. leverage
DhanCHEAPEST40.0%2.5×

Compare every broker on the IGPL MTF page.

IGPL vs peers,sector comparison

StockP/EDiv yieldMarket cap
IGPL (this stock)629.0×2.21%₹1,396 Cr
RELIANCE23.1×0.45%₹17.95L Cr
TCS14.7×3.01%₹7.69L Cr
HDFCBANK15.9×1.65%₹12.11L Cr
INFY14.4×4.51%₹4.32L Cr
ICICIBANK17.9×0.81%₹9.70L Cr
SBIN11.5×1.67%₹9.61L Cr

About IGPL: sector, index & market-cap context

IGPL (IGPL) is a small-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 500 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹1,396 Cr. See more Nifty 500 stocks.

How the IGPL Snapshot Score & forecast are built

The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IGPL's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.

This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.

IGPL analysis, FAQs

Is IGPL (IGPL) a good buy?

On the numbers, IGPL (IGPL) tread carefully, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 31/100, weighing expensive at 629.0× earnings, ROE of 0.2%, a 27% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.

Is IGPL overvalued or undervalued?

IGPL trades at 629.0× earnings versus a peer median of 15.9×, so it screens richer than its sector peers.

What is the IGPL share price target for 2031?

IGPL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹141, with an 80% range of ₹46₹434 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).

What is the probability IGPL doubles in 5 years?

The modelled probability of IGPL reaching ₹894 (2×) within 5 years is 2%.

What is the bull case for IGPL?

Low price-to-book of 1.05×, the market is paying little over the company's net assets. Pays a 2.2% dividend yield, so you're partly paid to wait.

What are the risks in IGPL?

A rich 629.0× P/E leaves a thin margin of safety if growth slows. Return on equity is a soft 0.2%, capital efficiency trails higher-quality peers. The probability model is cautious 12 months out, only a 27% chance of finishing above today's price.

More on IGPL