IIFL
IIFL Finance
Each stock's 10,000-path forecast, rendered as light.
IIFL Finance (IIFL) Stock Analysis & Case Study
Is IIFL a good buy? The data-driven verdict.
IIFL Finance (IIFL) trades at ₹538,on the numbers it worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100.
On the numbers, IIFL Finance (IIFL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.8× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. Below: the full bull case, bear case, sector-relative valuation, and a probability-weighted price target for 2027–2031.
Last updated . Data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
IIFL fundamentals at a glance, PE, PB, ROE, ROCE, market cap, dividend yield
Is IIFL overvalued? IIFL P/E vs its sector
IIFL's P/E of 13.8× sits below the sector peer median of 14.7×, so on earnings it screens in line with peers, while its 0.74% dividend yield is below the peer median of 1.65%.
IIFL share price target 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, a probability view
Unlike a single guessed number, this is a probability-weighted range from a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on 2.0y of IIFL history (6%/yr drift, 42%/yr volatility).
| Year | Low (P10) | Median target (P50) | High (P90) | Upside vs today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IIFL 2027 | ₹302 | ₹517 | ₹882 | -3% |
| IIFL 2028 | ₹234 | ₹501 | ₹1,085 | -6% |
| IIFL 2029 | ₹194 | ₹490 | ₹1,241 | -8% |
| IIFL 2030 | ₹163 | ₹474 | ₹1,394 | -11% |
| IIFL 2031 | ₹136 | ₹461 | ₹1,535 | -13% |
Median (P50) is the central estimate; the P10–P90 band is the 80% confidence range. Probabilities, not promises.
What is the probability IIFL goes up, or doubles?
The bull case for IIFL
- Trades at just 13.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection.
- A healthy 12.6% return on equity.
- Upside scenario: the model's optimistic (P90) 3-year path reaches ₹1,241.
The bear case & risks
- No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.
- Downside scenario: the model's pessimistic (P10) 3-year path falls to ₹194.
IIFL volatility & expected range, how bumpy is the ride?
Over the last 2.0 years IIFL compounded at 6%/year with annualized volatility of 42%. That volatility implies a 1-year 80% range of ₹302–₹882, the honest backbone behind any single price target.
IIFL price forecast, the full 60-month probability fan
IIFL price probability fan
Each band shows where 10,000 simulated paths land. The wider the fan, the more uncertainty.
Probability of key outcomes
What are the odds IIFL hits common targets within the simulated horizon?
Full multi-horizon detail on the IIFL price target & forecast page.
IIFL Piotroski F-Score: 4/9, how financially strong is it?
The Piotroski F-Score grades financial strength on nine profitability, leverage and efficiency checks. IIFL scores 4/9,mixed financial health.
IIFL MTF margin & leverage, Upstox, Zerodha, Groww, Dhan
Margin Trading Facility lets you buy IIFL with part of the capital. Lower margin % = higher leverage. Rates compared across brokers (no competitor publishes this):
| Broker | Margin required | Approx. leverage |
|---|---|---|
| UpstoxCHEAPEST | 35.5% | 2.8× |
| ZerodhaCHEAPEST | 35.5% | 2.8× |
| DhanCHEAPEST | 35.5% | 2.8× |
Compare every broker on the IIFL MTF page.
IIFL vs peers,sector comparison
About IIFL Finance: sector, index & market-cap context
IIFL Finance (IIFL) is a mid-cap NSE-listed company, and a constituent of the Nifty 200 index group, with a market capitalisation of ₹22,878 Cr. See more Nifty 200 stocks.
How the IIFL Snapshot Score & forecast are built
The Downstox Snapshot Score is a transparent, rules-based read of IIFL Finance's public fundamentals plus a statistical forecast, not an analyst opinion. It rewards low-to-fair valuation, high ROE/ROCE, a strong Piotroski F-Score, a dividend, low volatility and a favourable probability of upside; it penalises rich valuations, weak capital efficiency, a low F-Score and high volatility. The price target is a 10,000-path Monte-Carlo simulation on real historical volatility, a distribution, not a single guess. The bull and bear cases are generated from the same data, so you always see both sides.
This is information, not investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before investing.
IIFL analysis, FAQs
Is IIFL Finance (IIFL) a good buy?
On the numbers, IIFL Finance (IIFL) worth a closer look, a Downstox Snapshot Score of 65/100, weighing inexpensive at 13.8× earnings, ROE of 12.6%, a 47% model probability of trading higher in a year. This is a data snapshot for research, not investment advice.
Is IIFL overvalued or undervalued?
IIFL trades at 13.8× earnings versus a peer median of 14.7×, so it screens cheaper than its sector peers.
What is the IIFL share price target for 2031?
IIFL's probability-weighted 2031 median target is ₹461, with an 80% range of ₹136–₹1,535 (10,000-path Monte-Carlo).
What is the probability IIFL doubles in 5 years?
The modelled probability of IIFL reaching ₹1,065 (2×) within 5 years is 19%.
What is the bull case for IIFL?
Trades at just 13.8× earnings, below the ~22× long-run Nifty average, so the valuation leaves room rather than pricing in perfection. A healthy 12.6% return on equity.
What are the risks in IIFL?
No model or past record guarantees future returns, treat this as one input, not a decision.